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NII Holdings Inc. Message Board

  • anhletran anhletran Jun 21, 2014 5:14 PM Flag

    My take on the trading

    I think everyone can agree on the point that it was absolutely prearranged trade execution. The guess is on who sell/buy and why? My take is that the parties involved are both institutions who some dealings going on. Here two the possibilities:

    1. Tax reason: the parties need to balance their books to avoid paying too much tax in one year and boost performance. For example: Party A is holding NIHD and currently making lots profits this year with other investments. Party B is currently not holding NIHD but has incurred loss from other investments. So, Party A can sell NIHD at loss to Party B. The result: Party A can reduce tax on profit while Party B can improve its performance when NIHD go above $1 later. In this case, Party A is probably doing Party B a favor. But if you scratch my back, I'll scratch yours later.

    3. Some buyout negotiations are going on between the parties. And one party, who is currently a large NIHD holder but under the water because of its entry point was above $5, demands to buy shares now at lower price to approve the buyout deal. So, if the buyout price is around $3-$4 range, it can recoup its investment. It is a win-win situation.

    Let's see what will play out. But at least I put up some educated guess work.

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    • Anhletran ,

      Hmmm... How about some follow up questions?

      #1 So, your thesis is the best way for party-B to play some catch up is by buying NIHD when there are 8000 other stocks?

      #2 So, who is the seller in this case and what is their angle?

      I'm sorry, but both your cases are long biased and filled with nothing but optimism and hope. No logical inference or conclusions can be drawn from it.

      • 2 Replies to picker.bottom
      • YO "BOTTOM"--I guess you're not so smart after all--your buddy FRANC got you straightened out real good, in his below post!!!! If you want to be a knowledgeable player in NIHD, you gotta carefully read and pay attention to FRANC--there is no question but he is the MSB "guru/go to guy" on NIHD :-)

      • Picker.bottom, It's already known why someone snapped up roughly 15% of the shares in a matter of minutes..They were buying on the news that the High Courts Rejected Appeals To Injunctions Against The New Telecom Laws Going Into Effect!!..Basically those persons and entities who sought to stop the new laws were denied, therefore players like NIHD WON A BIG VICTORY! in there pursuit to gain more market share in countries were they do business, which will certainly increase their market share and revenue making the companies intrinsic value worth more..If you like you can research these facts!

    • I was thinking similarly. Reminded of the professional sports drafting how "favors" are given for positioning from one team to another dependent on their specific needs and overall destination goals. I agree it was prearranged. Regardless of who it was, there was a transfer of everyones favorite POS. We don't have much choice as we're just benchwarmers in this game, but to see the trade/interest of this size, ten percent loss is nothing considering the tape recorded, and timing. The shares were desired and had to be traded, if NIHD were assumed worthless or a depreciating asset, is there such thing as making too much on your books?

      I've been day trading the POS to acquire more shares. When things are dark, it's hard to see the light. The time to wait for gratification as a generation Y-er, is appealing.

      I am more than happy to ride it to the grave if that is where this is headed, voluntarily.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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