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iShares MSCI Brazil Capped Message Board

  • dandanthemanlyman dandanthemanlyman Jan 28, 2011 11:25 AM Flag

    EWZ - Technically

    Hitting a major area of support today, the 72.7 mark. If it closes below then they'll be a new range for the current downtrend.

    Three ways to play:

    1) It'll bounce and start a new uptrend
    2) It'll hold and continue to skirt the line
    3) New downtrend range

    No way of knowing, and even I think my own analysis counts for like 1% of my eventual actions. My one negative on this is that there is no longer term uptrend. The only definable is this trend from Oct. The Jun uptrend got broke in Dec.

    Disclosure: Just closed a succesful bear call spread.

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    • Nice close on your options, I just opened a small options position with the expectation we will get a short term spike back upwards. I Agree though that longer term this could go either way from here.

      Happy Trading.

    • Have you seen what the prices on soy, wheat, etc are doing these days? I dont know how the crop conditions are in Brazil, and that will vary, but long term this trend is clear to me. jmho

    • Technical analysis is just voodoo to me, although perhaps one can make the case it indicates sentiment. This sell off is a buy opportunity imho. My theory is that Brazil has the products that the world wants/needs and that demand is growing. So its about agriculture like wheat, soy, beef and energy like oil. I dont understand the currency wars etc, but think that gets sorted out in time. So long term this looks good to me, and easy to hold considering the yield.

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