i'm actually thinking of going short on this one real soon. i shorted at $23 and closed out at $18 last year (with a $30 call as protection against an upside move).
now i'm thinking of shorting from $7 to $4, using a sept 09 $10 as protection (cost is 0.5/contract). i didn't like shorting it at $4 or even $5. but now it is getting up into the stratosphere.
the debt load here is enormous and no assets backing it. only cash flow and not much there either. knowing commercial real estate is in the midst of a potentially record setting collapse, it is impossible to understand why someone would be long the stock today. i don't mind taking risk in investing but going long here is way past my risk appetite.
come sept, if the swap debt for equity discussions haven't hit the wires yet, i imagine i'd double down on the short (at least) and buy a protective call covering a few more months.
i think this company will survive and the stock will be a buy at some point. but i'd say not until some debt gets swapped for equity.