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InterMune, AŞ Message Board

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  • thesunneyone thesunneyone Jan 8, 2009 10:10 AM Flag

    Pirfenidone Outcome Survey

    Go back and take a look at the actual press release detailing top line results. This was a single trial with both US and European sites. The company very specifically broke down results by geographic location. They even had the nerve to put a header on the press release that indicated positive results. Initially the stock went up in after hours. Once people had fully read the press release, they saw the trial was a failure. They stated a positive outcome in US participants, a negative result in European participants, and a negative overall outcome. If that is not data mining and spin then I don't know what is. The trial had enrollment at just over 200 and change. Hardly a large phase III trial by any measure.Once the release was being dragged out, well that was the clincher for me. It took over two months from last patient visit to release. Easy to now see that they were trying to break apart the different geographic to show some sort of positive. As for why don't I sell. Well I had hoped to buy some puts which just isn't practical given the enormous premiums. I don't have much at stake and am playing because I have followed this for a long time. Although priced and indicating total failure, hope springs eternal.

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    • Altus Pharmaceuticals Announces Achievement of Primary Endpoint in Phase 3 Efficacy Trial of Trizytek for Cystic Fibrosis Patients with Pancreatic Insufficiency
      Investor Conference Call Scheduled for 4:30 PM ET on August 11,

      Does this look like a suitable press release heading for a trial which actually failed? Please go to to read the entire press release. One might think that the trial was a success when in fact it was a total failure. If this is not a classic example of data minig and spin then I don't know what is.

    • Actually I think Altus hit the P value (overall) the problem was what their SPA called for namely a greater increase in CFA for the under 40 group. Yes they did break things out but to me if they gave a reason for why there was a difference it would have been more of a cover up.

      OK I won't argue they tried to push the significance of meeting the p-value and they did break things out so far enough to excuse them of data mining.

      In hindsight people will say the same thing about InterMune/Pirfenidone or if it is positive they could say well it was a very large study, many international sites, over 3 holidays, ...

      BTW, just saw altus had a bogus PR about completing their Phase 1 growth hormone that should have been done months ago! I lost a lot more money on Altus then I stand to lose on ITMN though I am certainly cautiously optimistic that it will be successful.