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InterMune, Inc. Message Board

  • mcj96 mcj96 May 5, 2010 11:08 PM Flag

    SVNT announced AHs that it will put the company up for sale

    as soon as Krystexxa is approved this Sept. Analysts estimate Krystexxa will have peak worldwide revenues of approx $1B. SVNT's acquirer will have to pay some multiple (2-4x?) of peak worldwide revenue estimates. Krystexxa will be the only orphan gout drug in the world that eliminates gout tophi rapidly(in 6-12 months) vs 2-4 YEARS.... for Allopurinol and Febuxostat. There are an estimated *5 MILLION US gout patients and double that worldwide(*10 MILLION). If SVNT captures just 1% of the treatment failure world gout mkt(around 100k patients) at approx $20k/yr,Krystexxa's peak worldwide revs will be around $2B. SVNT will likely be acquired at some agreed multiple of peak revenue estimates(30-35/sh). To give a comparison, DNDN currently is selling for over 7x peak rev estimates. If SVNT is sold at just 4x peak US-only rev estimates of $500M($20k/yr x 25k US patients), SVNT's mkt cap is $2B or 30/sh. Also, if one factors in the EU and Japanese markets these estimates get bumped up significantly.

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