Pirfenidone is a unique compound with multiple uses. IPF is only the first. Look up ESRD and Uterine Leiomyoma. The compound itself is worth far more than the current stock price. If ITMN can't take it there, big pharma will take it off their hands. Buy and hold.
After giving it a little thought, it strikes to me a little odd that the drug was approved in Europe in March 2011 with the study results that it has efficacy of 10% TO 30% after using it for at least a year. How did they determine in 9 months that it has little or no benefit? Why do this after approval and not before? Generally you look for efficacy before approval and adverse effects after approval. Did they put the cart before the horse? or is this a scam?
Different analyses. The IQWIG report essentially disregarded the value of FVC and 6-min walk differences as predictors of survival. That old dispute has been settled the other way in pretty much everybody's view (including FDA).
I'm not saying it's a scam or a conspiracy, but the IQWIG report is indefensible scientifically. I'm even pulling back on my expectation that it may delay pricing approval in other countries. Once you realize that it disregards improvements in prognosis, you wonder why they wasted the paper on it.
But of course, the stock market is only tied to facts in the long term.