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InterMune, AŞ Message Board

  • mershaw2001 mershaw2001 Mar 20, 2013 9:55 PM Flag

    NICE approval

    That's nice. Looks like it came in after hours enough so that it didn't hit the late market. If it's anything like the other approvals, we'll see a 10% bump in the price of the stock.

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    • I just bought into this stock this week and very happy to see the NICE approval. I'm not really concerned about a short-term bump, but hope these patients will benefit from the drug and this will lead to US approval. Going to buy more in a few weeks, after the dust settles. If I were short, I think I'd be covering!

      • 2 Replies to gmhershey
      • I honestly didn't expect this. Basically, Esbriet offers an extra year of life in return for taking it for 3 years (more-or-less). Under the law NICE operates under, the price is pushing the upper bound assuming 100% QoL, The ruling, like the French approval, forces discontinuation after substantial disease progression.

        Finnish pricing is an interesting development also, as Finland prides itself on acting independently--more so than most small countries.

        While there's no real short case against Intermune, the evil $60MM a quarter IMMEDIATELY meme will hold the stock price down a while longer.

      • This has one of the highest short interests, and that wasn't dependent on the NICE approval. The problem that ITMN is having is that it can't monetize its drug. They aren't pulling in enough money to make people think they can keep their heads above water- NICE will help by allowing more patients to be enrolled, but that enrollment will be in june or later so it doesn't help with the immediate finances.
        I'm long, but if I was short, I wouldn't be scared. My short thesis wouldn't have changed too much.