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InterMune, Inc. Message Board

  • blackhawk4652000 blackhawk4652000 Apr 24, 2013 4:23 PM Flag

    $$ITMN$$ GREAT EARNINGS........

    Impressive beat by 10 cents and revs up 114% from last year. Even more impressive since these figures include shionogi receiving 4.5%.

    I think we get a major shortsqueeze as short interest increased from 14 million to 18 million as of 4-15. Someone screwed up and was expecting something which they did not get........

    441 million in cash on hand is a lot of cash and allows them flexibility...............

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    • Forgot that there are more shares this Quarter versus last. If you use same denominator, then loss is $0.77 per share. Don't be fooled by 'fuzzy' math. A lot of companies do this to show the street how great they are doing. However, potential buyers for the company, versus stocks, will do their math. Hence, the negative trending on stock.

      • 1 Reply to pooping_bull
      • There really isn't any "possible take-out premium." As always, management and institutional holders see a drug with $multiple hundred MM a quarter revenue potential, and possible acquirers see a drug with $10 MM a quarter actual revenue. They won't reach a deal, and really the stock price is appropriate for a company this size with a nice-looking US p3 in progress (with the usual no credit for European market).

        Possible catalysts I could see for a strong up move would be SUBSTANTIAL current revenue from Europe (probably doesn't really need $60 MM, but $45 MM or better), which looks unlikely before late '14, or successful completion of ASCEND--call it mid '14. I can't for the life of me imagine a plausible downward catalyst (termination of ASCEND for futility would do it, but it isn't plausible)(and note that patient compliance was addressed in the recent CC, positively).

        Nobody has talked lately about the poking at applicability of pirfenidone to kidney disease. About the only way I could see that making a difference would be if preliminary results attract a nice partnership arrangement--a very long shot.

        Until then, the stock figures to be range-bound.

    • Evidently the street did not agree.
      Their cash burn is large and cannot be sustained. They have no hope of getting FDA approval b4 2016. The best that they can do is to look for a Buyer.when they still have some cash balance.

    • No after hour trading?

    • I agree. I missed hearing another installment of the comparison with Tracleer, but the situation is getting more complicated. I'm going to have to listen to the accounting treatment of the convertibles again; there may be something worth remembering in there.

      As this company gets increased attention, Mr Welch's speaking style is becoming more meaningful. The CEO's presentation style can have a completely unreasonable effect on stock price. He sounds good for most of each answer. Basically, the problem is that his restatement of each question has a tone as if you had just killed his dog, and the tone continues a sentence or two into the answer.

      The summary of R&D expenditures didn't include anything for Son of Pirfenidone; I hope they're at least poking at the problem.

      • 2 Replies to jacosa
      • speaks to the employees the same way....does not instill a lot of confidence.

      • I thought it was a pretty positive cc call. LOL with the ceo-i agree with you, his speaking style is not flamboyant.

        What caught my attention was the analyst who asked about boeringer study with esbriet In japan. Welch was caught offgaurd and was surprised. His answer leads you to believe that they are in discussions about combo's or more-very interesting-
        short interest increased from 14 to 18 million- they did not get what they were hoping for as the qtr was good, plenty of cash, guidance reiterated and that new boeringer info.
        Could lead to a pretty good short squeeze as they will want to exit as to many are on the same side there.......

    • Yes impressive. I don't think it will catalyze the squeeze you're looking for. I'd go for a nice 1-2 dollar increase as some shorts unwind, but 10 MM revenue as opposed to 8 MM revenue isn't that big of a boost. The big things are the NICE approval, which was known, and the earnings beat, which was unknown and good but not "stellar".

 
ITMN
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