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InterMune, Inc. Message Board

  • forlinilv forlinilv Jun 17, 2013 10:53 AM Flag

    Is $300/ share possible?

    I believe the market in Europe ALONE for pirfenidone is around 70,000 patients with mild to moderate IPF. 70,000 X 40,000(per treatment) is 2.8 billion in revenue. Drug manufacturing margins average 75% which gives you approximately 2.1 billion. 2.1 billion/80 million shares =26.25/share x industry average PE of 12 = $315.00

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    • I thought that I saw a report that there was some difficulty selling pirfenidone, something like "doctor's not uptaking pirfenidone as fast as expected", does anyone know if there's any truth to that?

      Also, what's up with the 300 million in shelf offering that i saw float across theflyonthewall two weeks ago?

      • 2 Replies to mershaw2001
      • Somehow, a story got around that Intermune anticipated European sales starting at $60MM a quarter and ramping quickly. I have no idea where it started, but it was widely repeated and caused an impression that there was some mysterious problem with sales. What with the IQWiG idiocy and the absence of a government in Spain to pass on Esbriet reimbursement, there HAVE been some disappointments, but management has consistently told analysts to compare Esbriet adoption with Tracleer adoption. That drug also started out gradually, but is now generally considered a blockbuster.

      • reference:
        Analyst at Summer Street said they think physicians in the EU will "remain ambivalent" toward Esbriet. With this in mind, Esbriet in Europe will remain slow until Phase 3 Trial (Ascend) is completed or FDA approval, thinks Summer Street.

    • That IS the bull case. I tend to apply a "slop factor" of 4-8, which still leaves plenty of upside.

      The bear case focuses on the difficulty of selling Esbriet. IPF is a rare-ish disease, so in countries where treatment tends to be community-based, many calls are needed to get to physicians treating many cases. They may in turn need multiple calls because side effects need to be managed.

 
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