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Interstate Nat'l Dealer (ISTN) Message Board

  • tumarkin tumarkin Feb 4, 1998 8:11 PM Flag

    why the drop

    Does anyone know any reason for ISTN's drop this week? I thought it would rise after its strong earnings report a few weeks
    ago. It did miss expectations, but then those expectations were only coming from 2 analysts. At today's close of 7 7/8, the PE is
    down around 15. That seems awfully cheap for a company's whose earnings rose 122% over last year and whose revenues rose 78%. I
    have to believe this stock is going to rise pretty soon. Maybe after the 1st quarter numbers come out next month?

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    • that the old guard is being replaced by larger
      retail holders. Everything on this board has been
      negative since we hit $6/share ... meanwhile the price has
      stabilized with heavy volume = rotation. Someone is scooping
      up shares ... its pretty obvious.

    • Took my losses two days ago and moved on -ISTN is
      going no where because management has no clue on how to
      increase investors values-Look for their new venture to
      tank causing some real write- offs-They may have many
      listings but the product just wont hunt-Too bad, I thought
      this was a real value play, but the real value is to
      Chester and his inside group

    • The estimates are from Zacks and you can find it here on Yahoo company research. Also check out some of the earlier posts here regarding the dilution from exercise of warrants. It appears to me that these warrants were exercised at prices below book value. Check out the numbers: Cash/Share went from $7.93 in 10/97 to $6.49 on 1/98. Book Value went from $4.36 to $3.37. The dilution effect of these warrants harmed existing shareholder's value.

    • I'm not sure I want to hang in any longer either.
      I expected this report to catch wallstreets eye
      and move the stock to a fair valuation. Well one
      of the two happened.

      What was the estimate for this quarter anyway and
      where did you find it? I found no estimates at all.

    • I bought ISTN last spring based on their earnings trend and the relative valuation level. However, the last two quarterly earnings release tells me that their earnings momentum is gone. ISTN has missed earnings estimates by 20% last qtr. and by about 80% this qtr. (adjusting for the .06 one time). It seems to me that ISTN will be hard pressed to meet the .70 this year. I believe its prudent to take my profits and look for a better opportunity elsewhere.

    • I happen to be long ISTN. I heard from my friend who recommended the stock at 9 based on his buddy who has a LARGE position in ISTN and runs a hedge fund that they sold some of the position to reposition the portfolio. I repeat, the fund is still bullish on ISTN.

    • I'm long this stock and was a little disappointed at today's earnings. Revenues appear to be great but, as the CEO said, margins were a problem. Basically, year over year was flat, net income wise.

      Anyhow, I watched the stock pretty closely this morning, and all trades seemed to be at the bids, with the bids going progressively lower until they hit below 8. How is it that someone was buying aggressively this morning under this scenario?

    • Scott,

      Curious where you get most of your info.
      You seem to have more insight than others on this board.


    • I suspect an institution sold some...First Wilshire Securities I contacted...and they own 15% of the stock...said they are and have been buying all last week too...They see the numbers as very positive...and numbers will be really good next quarter..This was their slow quarter...VectorVest rates the value of this stock at $18.20 per share...I have personally been buying all morning...Scott

    • Calm down. I have no APCO postings because I have been in the stock before I even had a computer and am a long term
      investor. I have never had a need to post anything and seldom even look at the postings for APCO. I am going to ride APCO for ten
      years if things keep going the way they are or if they sell out obviously it will be over. I can talk directly with the company
      and they have always been open and honest. I also feel this is reflected in the research reports and when a company is this open
      and the information they give me has proven to be good, I don't subject myself to some of the rumors and misinformation in the
      postings. I went out looking for information on ISTN and saw the postings and decided to share my insight, that's it.

      Today as they reported earnings there was some mention of margins being squeezed but the reason was that they had received
      lower margin contracts. It is good to see that management has a plan in place to reverse this trend but they still have not
      addressed the question of maturing contracts and the higher expense incurred by the insurance arm when this happens. This appears to
      be squeezing margins as well. The larger amount of shares and flat per share earnings does not bother me a bit as long as they
      were caused by increased shares. Cash looks good as well.

      If I was to make a recommendation based on my experience there is still an opportunity here it is just that I haven't gotten all the information from management.

      And as for spreading lies to get a lower stock price that is just per bull. I hardly think a posting on Yahoo is capable of that and the truth is much more important. If people are trading on postings they could be in for a lot of disappointment. Besides I wouldn't do it. Look for yourself at them numbers on contract expenses. Ask the company.

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