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New York Community Bancorp Inc. Message Board

  • billberggren billberggren Jun 18, 2004 8:21 PM Flag

    What about the debt.

    The big question is the debt. It is exploding every quarter. It may be unpayable. Meaning using all cash flow - debt repayments, would not be enough to meet obligations. If I am missing something regarding the debt post it here.


    3.4 Billion 9/02
    4.5 Billion 12/02
    5.3 Billion 3/03
    5.9 Billion 6/03
    6.5 Billion 9/03

    That being said NYB will grow earnings 20-30 percent a year on buybacks alone. So I am happy the stock is dropping on one point and scared on the other.

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    • Maybe NYB can get some of Green Point's share of the apartment business while it is being absorbed ny North Fork.

    • You left out one minor detail: They have over 90 bucks per share in assets.

    • Per Fidelity:
      NYB has 264,366,000 shs outstanding.

      "Annual Financials
      Mar 2004 Dec 2003 Dec 2002 Dec 2001 Dec 2000
      Revenues $1,054 mil $913 mil $701 mil $514 mil $197 mil
      Net Earnings $386 mil $323 mil $229 mil $105 mil $25 mil
      Net EPS $1.77 $1.65 $1.25 $.75 $.47
      Pre-tax Margin 56.4% 53.9% 47.9% 34.1% 22.8%
      Net Margin 36.6% 35.4% 32.7% 20.3% 12.5%
      EBITDA NA $737 mil $562 mil $393 mil $147 mil
      Long-Term Debt $12,681 mil $9,931 mil $4,592 mil $2,507 mil $1,038 mil"
      NYB has $3.98 annual revenues per share...

      & NYB has $47.96 Long Term Debt per share.

      So how can you justify 'the problem is not debt'?

      You & swusc remind me of a vacuum cleaner in a dept store blowing air to keep the {NYB} beach ball in the air. The only thing keeping NYB up is hot air & good luck.

      How long do you think a share of NYB {or any stock} with annual revenues of $3.98 {- minus operating expenses etc. etc.} can service &/or pay off $47.96 LT debt per share?

      One consolation, NYB's not going down fast as Enron. But it is going down like a dotcom/telecom bubble bomb.

    • We don't have a clue right now what's going on with the rest of NYB's assets. The company will be in a better position to unload some of its MBS portfolio if it has accelerated loan originations.

    • sorry i didnt see that my brother had signed in.

      That was me under the wrong id.


    • well, there a few berkshire shareholder owning nYB. I know of atleast 4-5.

      The repo loans are the problem, since they funded the MBS. I just dont see how they will be the death or even do long term damage. I am a value investor, so i go where the value and miss pricing are located in the market.


    • Its Assets. NYB invested our assets in long term Mortgages at fixed rates. If interest rates go up the return on those investments shrinks as the bank is forced to pay higher interest to depositors.

      The loss is in the value of those long term Mortgages if and when sold. They still pay interest and the principle will still be paid back according to the particular debt. As long as the bank does not sell the mortgages we do not have a problem and it appears that no change in interest income will occur. The change will be in interest expense. As interest rates rise the cost of the banks liabilities or deposits and short term borrowings will rise and squeeze the interest rate margin. We will make a little less money.

      The problem everyone thinks they have is if NYB sell these mortgages. Then because interest rates went up the value of a fixed rate say 5% mortgage portfolio would be worth less then say a 6% portfolio. Not worthless just worth less. If we sell we write down the value. If we hold and collect the monthly payments we write down nothing.


    • Are the borrowings callable by the debt holder is a good question since this could worsen the net interest margin much faster?

    • Yes. NYB is in the business of using REPO FUNDING (ie margin loans) to buy long dated securities.

      That activity constituted more than HALF of NYB's highly levered balance sheet - and even a higher proportion of the profits.

      So yes. NYB is a LEVERED HEDGE FUND.

      These are normally priced AT BOOK and marked to market.

      Do that and NYB is a sub $10 stock.

      Sure glad I am a scudzy short!


      PS. SWUSC - I am surprised as a Berkshire holder that you are so interested in holding someone with as many margin loans as NYB.


      The institutions (Citi, Bear etc) know exactly what the position at NYB is because as interest rates rise NYB has been getting margin calls.

    • Do you even know what business NYB is in?

      I give up answering your post. The questions should be able to be answered by a 1st year hs student with a good math background.

      So the question is, will net margin improve if rates rise to 5-10 percent. If they do this quickly by the end of 05, then NYB will be in trouble. If it happens slowly, then it doesn't matter.



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