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New York Community Bancorp Inc. Message Board

  • stevethey stevethey Sep 16, 2004 8:05 PM Flag

    great price action but no vol??

    wow a great day for this stock but w/o vol -- good news coming or is it just related to option expiration ?

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    • You've got me there, since I've never read the Schiller book. Hear it's good.

      Like most technically oriented investors, I studied Dow Theory mostly as background. The interesting thing about it, imo, is that they really didn't make the rigid distinction between investment and trading one sees so often today: they were really just looking at the big "tidal" swings of the market and whether it made sense to be invested or not.

      There's a surviving Dow Theory trading record from the 1930's--Robert Rhea's "Story of the Averages." Hard to obtain and a little hard to understand at first glance because he tends to present tables of numbers instead of charts.
      But he was actually quite an effective trader: knew what he wanted, what price behavior mattered relative to that goal, and how to gather the relevant data.

      That's really why I like the Hamilton quote. Things get a lot simpler once you begin by deciding exactly why you're buying XYZ and what data are relevant. In the case of NYB, the technical swing trader who (correctly) bought that dramatic selling climax would either be out already or trailing a tight sell stop. The investor or position trader is more interested in seeing whether or not a base of accumulation develops in the stock.

      Either perspective is a calculated risk on entry, and there's a world of hurt out there for those who don't keep the basis of their calculation in mind.

      I find that most of the serious mistakes we make are the result of sloppy thinking and/or inattention. For instance, I'd had NYB on my short sales list since the Treasury note futures market topped in Summer 03. (The Thrift sector was in a "bull top" market in terms of its internals as early as mid 2002.) But I got tired of waiting for it to roll over, stopped checking, and missed the opportunity to make some very serious money in the stock by, first, selling short and, then, taking the long trade shortly after that climax day. That's the kind of failure that comes from not being careful and patient enough and the kind that ought to be easy to avoid.

    • I'd love to be able to hear what he had to say about today's economy and stock market. He probably would have LOVED, "Irrational Exuberance", by Schilling.

    • Hard to say, insasmuch as he died just before the event.

      He did predict it in a series of Barrons and WSJ articles, the last of which was called "The Turning of the Tide." (Still in print, btw.)

      More importantly, he wasn't just predicting a selloff but a primary bear market with economic implications, which turned out to be even worse than he suspected.

      He was an analyst of and participant in the wildly speculative markets of his day in London, Johannesburg (gold,) and New York. Also a gold medalist of the Royal Statistical Society for his work on the connection between the activity of financial markets and economies.

      Never had much problem in accepting that he understood the subject better than I do. You may feel differently.

    • I wonder how Hamilton made out during the crash of 1929?

    • It's amazing how little things change in the financial markets. One my favorite comments about the confusion between business and trading values was written by the Dow Theorist Wm. Hamilton in 1921.

      Talking about the guy who buys value and then starts sweating the tape, H said: "he may be able to pay {cash} for his stock, but he can not forget about it. He thinks he must read the price list every morning." When the stock tails off a little, "he says he will take his loss and remember the lesson. He is entirely mistaken about the lesson, and what he is forgetting is not his loss but the reason why he bought the stock."

    • Yesterday's price action: not bad, not good.

      Maybe this simple point-and-figure chart will help:

      http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=NYB,PLPADANRBO[PA][D20040917][F1
      !3!1.0!!2!750]&pref=G


      You can see box-like areas of overlapping recordings above and below the price--"resistance" and "support." Very large numbers of shares, relative to daily trading volume of late, changed hands at these levels.
      Without a marked increase in trading volume the stock is unlikely to go much of anywhere, (though somewhat more likely to depreciate.)

      IMO, you're asking the wrong questions about the wrong things. If you want to daytrade the stock, you could use something like this and never have to worry about going too far wrong:

      http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=NYB,PLUCJANRBO[PA][D20040917][F1
      !3!0.01!!2!750]&pref=G


      But I doubt if your patients would be pleased to wait while you compiled chart entries in real time in increments of 1 cent. Even if you were willing to put up the cash to benefit from moves of, say 1%, and devote the time to your trades, you'd still want a stock showing much better trend and activity than NYB.

      The real question here is who accumulated all those shares in the consolidations now beneath the price (and now supporting.) It wasn't only the officers and directors. Value investors? Quick turn artists who picked up the selling climax on their technical programs?

      Who's holding at those prices, and what do they expect? If they're buying the discrepency between price and value you've mentioned, they're not going to follow the stock up very far. Indeed, they'll welcome a selloff and start buying again when they think it won't get any cheaper. It's a pretty safe bet that they're not wringing their hands every day over this sluggish low-volume activity,

    • I recently owned HD and sold at a small profit after a downgrade from one of the brokerage firms. HD recently is on a tear...so I don't listen to the a**holes anymore as you say their downgrade probably means buy more.

      Could anyone comment on today's stock price activity. I think it held its own despite the downgrade but would like to hear some comments.

    • those cos that downgrade esp merrill lynch are a joke & in most cases /a couple of days later/ if you do the opposite you would be better off. if they are so smart why did almost all of their funds lose there ass during 2000-2003. this is my first time on this board but i have owned numerous banks & i can smell a good one when i see it! i'm not overly excited about their earnings but at these prices,older mgt with lots & lots of shares, depressed stock with excellent div tell me a buyout will occur! i don't know when but i'm buying & will buy on every drop because the handwriting is on the wall & the more i accumulate the better off i will be! at the same time the bank is paying 1% on your money but giving the shareholders 4 1/2. terrific deal to me!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    • Exactly the oppiste this time. It was upgraded to Buy when it fell to 17 and now that it's 21 they downgraded it to hold.

    • Neglected to mention that the high-volume range I was counting runs from about 22 to 24.5.

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NYCB
16.09-0.05(-0.31%)Dec 24 2:48 PMEST

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