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New York Community Bancorp Inc. Message Board

  • Emperical Emperical Dec 11, 2007 10:34 AM Flag

    Resistance at 19

    Maybe we'll close above $19 once and then get on with it from there.

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    • But it didn't so what in heavens name makes you think it will happen now????????
      I agree with stephen that Joe knows what he is doing and the direction he is bringing us in.
      Be patient; after all we ended the year on an up percentage which you cannot say for most banks that are on the same level as NYB.

    • ...i second that motion ! (it should have happened three years ago.)

    • ketzee211@verizon.net ketzee211 Jan 1, 2008 7:15 AM Flag

      joe made a $50 million dollar mistake, and the bank never came out of it! joe has to step down! for the bank to recover.

    • Well, if you're talking to me, I'll just tell you that my first exposures to professional investment were in New York City apartment building LPs. One of the general partners would often say "if it was easy, everyone would do it," and that happens to be a very simple business.

      I suppose some large percentage of people will put more thought into the purchase of a refrigerator than the purchase of an investment portfolio. A large part of "thinking" is understanding why you can't afford to think in that particular way.

      Maybe you work for years, only to understand what you don't understand and why somebody else might do it better. So what? If that's the reality of the situation, then that's what needs to be respected.

    • although your comments are excellent...do u really think the "average" joe understands what you are saying...(i'm a banker and had to put on my thinking cap for a moment..probably cause it is late on a friday before a major holiday and you used some big words) most folks spend more time picking out the tiles for their newly remodeled bathroom then picking investment elections for a 401k ....mutual funds or individual equity investments

      one of the "well documented" problems with today's retirement model...don't get me wrong...i wish double digit returns for all in 2008

    • dont think we will hit 19 for some time......

    • A real value fund in value and growth oriented markets. SPX, (red,) is their benchmark:

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MQIFX&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p02123973719

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MQIFX&p=W&st=1998-01-02&en=2000-10-31&id=p75194854833

      They give you what you pay for, whether that's what the market likes in a particular cycle or not.

      Don't mean to suggest that Mutual Series is the only or the best value house. Saw an interview with Marty Whitman of Third Avenue the other day that reminded me just how good he is.

      Lastly, I think the value discipline in general appeals to asset quality oriented investors, who tend to be interested both in the quality of the underlying business proposition and the price relative to that quality. Good stuff, as opposed to stuff that's "merely" popular.

    • I think a lot depends on what you know, and we never seem to know quite enough.

      For instance, we like and understand the concept of "value investment" in general but lack the accounting and macro-economic understanding to practice the discipline in most cases.

      Unfortunately, there's a persistent "style-drift" problem in managed funds. Put simply, they often don't do what they say they'll do. As the bear market sets in, the "value investor" turns out to have a portfolio of high priced growth.

      This isn't always the case, though. For instance, we've been very happy with Mutual Series Funds, (MQIFX)--Michael Price's onetime value shop, long since sold to Franklin who maintained the discipline against all odds through the late 90's growth bubble. (We're grandfathered on the fees, which are unattractive under Franklin management, imo.)

      In any case, this is one place we can always go to get a diversified portfolio of good stock, attractively priced in the early months of a bull market. As that bull market ages and begins an apparent topping process, we sell back to the minimum required to maintain our grandfathered fee status. In other words, we treat the fund as we'd treat a stock of exceptional quality, (if we knew enough to recognize that quality.)

      I've never understood the hostility of so many investors to the fund concept. If nothing else, "better them than me."
      When their ideas make sense and are consistently and competently executed, what's not to like?

    • I'm gonna have to disagree with you here a bit. Yes, don't put retirement savings in individual equities. Too much of a crap shoot. In a 401k plan however, if the plan sponsor is on the ball, the funds offered will provide significant diversification, allowing you to get the higher returns that come from equities (as opposed to money market investments) without taking on an unreasonable amount of risk.

      The key word here is DIVERSIFICATION. Owning a handful of stocks is like playing roulette. You have a chance to win big, but more likely you'll loose big. And the odds are tipped in favor of the house because of transaction costs (like the 0 and 00 on the roulette wheel).

      The better strategy is hold a broad array of well diversified funds, with low expenses. It is fun though to be in the market, so if you want to take say 5% of your money and fool around (like by day trading NYB) go to it. On a limited basis, you wont get into too much trouble.

    • don't ignore her...i find her entertaining and the reason why the "everyday" joe should not put most of their retirement savings in the market..either through 401k's or individual equities...can be dangerous...at least nyb not really down but still dead money excluding the divi

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NYCB
19.03+0.05(+0.26%)Jul 31 4:03 PMEDT