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New York Community Bancorp Inc. Message Board

  • koleffstephan koleffstephan Nov 4, 2008 1:02 PM Flag

    Any Long Term Investors of NYB Stock?

    I just wanted to know if there were any long term holders/investors( 3 years or longer), of NYB stock, on this message board, and if so, what do you think of the recent stock price action, as well as your thoughts on the long term prospects for the company?

    Why did NYB's stock price take such a hit in the year of 2004? Any thoughts or insights from long term holders would be greatly appreciated.

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    • Phage:

      My cost basis is $14.76/share. I am presently losing money on the position, while you, in turn, are not losing money, you, in your own words are "in deficit, on an accrual basis," which is a sophisticated way of saying, that you are also losing money.

      As far as "seeking reassurances" on my NYB stock positions, I am certainly not going to seek that from you. I do my own homework and own up to my gains and losses, rather than be "in deficit, on an accrual basis."

      As far as your trading positions making "north of 40% per annum," please save your fabrications and pontifications for some other sucker. By the way, I have a bridge for sale in Manhattan, if your interested - real cheap. I promise that you won't lose money on it, or to quote your words "that you won't be in deficit, on an accrual basis."

      I will get lost -from you - and I hope that you get lost from the NYB message board, since you are so full of yourself and b.s. and verbiage, that you may actually start believing what you are printing and saying. Please realize that nobody is "buying" what you are saying and for someone who is supposedly making "north of 40% gains on his trading positions," I am surprised that you are still interested in NYB stock.

      Have a good one.

    • The cost basis of the investment position is 14.67, the share price
      13.59; so, yeah, the investment
      positions' in deficit on an accrual
      basis. Why would I worry about that
      considering that the entire banking sector's is a much deeper hole?
      Whether you understand it or not
      many millions of shares of anything
      have been dumped in the last month
      and a half just to satisfy creditors
      or redemption requests, completely
      independent of fundamentals.

      I've actually been thinking of
      adding some to NYB

      The trading positions were never
      factored in because they're accounted on a realized basis--when sold or covered. The returns on these balances have been running
      very high, well north of 40%
      per annum. Actually, that isn't
      especially good for such short
      term trading, but it does solve
      the income problem that causes
      people like you to seek reassurance
      on what ought to be worry-free
      longer term investments.

      Look, we owned some of our core
      stocks--e.g. XOM--since the 1970's.
      Do you think I dig those carrots up
      every day to see whether they're
      growing?

      Nor do I think such "successful
      investments" are especially
      clever. When I do, I compare the
      appreciation to something like
      the cost of a quart of milk
      over the same period.

      What's hard about any of this?

      The share counts and trading balances
      aren't your concern.

      Now, get lost.

    • Phage:

      Your cost basis is $14.67/share and you made how much money? Oh, that's right, you can't tell us that because "you buy assets," and blah, blah, blah. Nobody cares and no one is asking you to list your "300 trades," we simply want to know if you made any money in NYB? If you have to go through 300 trades, just to find your positions in NYB stock, in order to show this message board how much money you made/lost, then you are a trader, my friend. If your cost basis is $14.67/share, then when did you buy your shares and how many do you have?

      Do you realize that you love to pontificate, and to hear yourself, or write to yourself, on and on, and on, to make this message board think that you know something. It sounds to me me like you have found a very sophisticated way to lose money and if any other message board readers took the time to actually read your messages (which they don't because they are too boring and tales told by an idiot, full of sound and fury and signifying nothing) they would realize that you are full of hot air.

      How much money are you losing? Oh yeah," you are studying capital structures, and asset levels, etc...." And yes, "when you want to make money in stocks we trade them," so I assume that when you buy stocks to hold them, you are not looking to make money then, you are looking to.........?

      Good bye. Please save the 5000 word return message, which will say nothing and mean nothing for someone who wants to read it. Realize, that I am the only one who ever reads it and responds, as no one else is interested in reading your self=pontificating treatise.

    • Wrong again. Look at savings deposits
      per share, which have fallen off by
      9.45% since 2005, despite the acquisition of three more banks
      in the interim.

      May mean something. May not. But
      how would you know, not having taken
      the trouble to learn the facts?

      I'm not getting anything from you
      on any level, so good night.

    • You're kidding, right? I just now
      gave you that information. If you want the precise number, the cost
      basis is now $14.67. Don't know
      whether that's above or below
      the current quotation.

      And I don't care. If you don't
      understand why, then you can't
      be much of an "investor." Our
      accountant could certainly tell
      you.

      I do care about such matters very
      much in the trading stocks; but,
      as I told you, we stopped trading
      NYB when better, simpler financial
      media became available. Wasn't a
      bad trade, just not as good as the
      other stuff. Not about to go through
      the 300 or so trades in the past
      two years to find the ten or so
      made in the NYB common. FWIW, only
      one was closed at a loss and that
      was a very small loss.

      Maybe, we aren't really "investors"
      like you. When we want money from
      stocks, we trade them: we do not hold them. Otherwise, I'm mainly
      concerned with the asset values:
      capital structure, current and
      potential income, cash flow.

      Maybe this whole controversy's
      entirely semantic. You call it
      investment. I call it trading.
      Even so, I don't understand why
      you're wasting your time with NYB,
      when you can get so much larger
      realizations out of the sector
      etfs I've mentioned, (or etfs in
      other sectors or, even, leveraged
      to indicies.)

      It's very simple arithmetic.
      What's the average daily spread
      between the highs and lows of
      XYZ over N days? The greatest
      daily excursion offers the greatest
      profit potential. Why don't you
      know this?

      The etf is also much simpler as
      you needn't concern yourself
      with the fundamentals at all,
      since company specific factors
      are diversified away--whereas
      someone actually invested in
      anything would need to know
      how it's done, how it's doing,
      and how it's most likely to do.

      Look, I've tried to be nice to
      you, but I'm not really such
      a nice person. I think you
      are very inexperienced and I
      know that you aren't very
      intelligent. You should stop
      taking council from the sell-side
      jokers on CNBC and popular crap
      about "investment success," find
      yourself some decent and disinterested primary sources, and
      think the investment/trading problem
      through for yourself. On the technical level, you might begin
      with Justin Mamis. On the fundamental, Martin Whitman.

      Again, this is how we make our
      living; but we had to learn to
      think accurately and independently
      before we were able to do that.

      Don't bother me again with your
      phony "inquiries."

    • Phage:

      NYB is gaining market share, in their specialized niche (multi-family lending on rent-controlled and rent stabilized properties) as we speak. All of their acquisitions have been accretive to earnings and your question as to the merits of Queens County Savings Bank merging with Roslyn Savings Bank speak for themselves. If you were an original investor (oh, that's right, you don't buy NYB stock, you buy "the assets"), when NYB went public (I believe in 1993 or 94) you are a happy camper, since with dividends and price appreciation you have made much money. Therefore, again, as stated above, the merits of Queen County Savings Bank and Roslyn Savings Bank are self-evident.

    • Phage:

      I don't want to engage in tedious and laborious conversation, unlike yourself.

      You have written numerous messages containing numerous paragraphs and yet no mention or sentences are devoted to the simple question I have asked you repeatedly.... have you ever made any money holding NYB stock? Simple question and it does not need a lengthy answer. As an investor, in the stock market, you buy stocks of companies, not assets. You buy them or trade them for the purpose of making money, pure and simple. The b.s. about buying them for "the assets," and pontificating on and on and on, incessantly, is simply an exercise to hear yourself speak and/or write.

      I don't mean to be disrespectful or mean-spirited, but can't you simply write an email that tells this message board what your experience has been buying and holding NYB stock relative to profits and losses? Please save the rest of the dialogue (that does not indicate what your profit or loss is, on NYB stock) for another time.

    • Good question, but a market technical one. Let me think about
      it when I review our (technical)
      trading data for the week tonight
      and get back to you early next week.

      Meanwhile, in case you're looking
      at NYB as an investment, let me
      raise the question that bothers
      me and that no one on this board
      has yet addressed. Was the
      M & A game that led from plain-old
      Queens County Savings to the present
      mini-empire of NYCB worth the candle?

      I mean that they must have bought
      all these banks in expectation of
      greater funding (deposits) at lower,
      or at least good, cost. We now know
      that their share of their excellent
      niche loan market is only about
      15%, and that their most uneconomic
      competitors have gone to the wall;
      so they should be able to greatly
      increase lending of the highest
      quality.

      But only if they were right to pay
      so much for the branch banks, (cf:
      the huge goodwill subtractions from
      book value.) If those branches aren't
      producing, and are probably unsalable
      to the large retail franchises now
      scooping up other big problem banks
      w. Government aid, then NYB's future
      is either limited or deferred.

      Understand that I'm talking about
      the bank as a business here, not as
      a trade. I was disturbed to see that
      their largest local competitor,
      Citibank--the poster child for
      bad management--is now offering
      4% on 6 month time deposits or
      300 bps over Fed Funds. NYCB
      wouldn't want to that and shouldn't
      have to if they weren't competing
      with an enormous corporate welfare
      client.

    • Phage Where do you see the price of this stock in 12 months? Thanks in advance..

    • No, you still don't understand. We don't want the "money." We want the
      assets.

      The same logic would apply to our
      New York City row house, bought in
      foreclosure from Citibank in the
      deep local real estate recession
      of the 90's. At the height of
      the recent boom, it had a fair
      market value on the order of 6-7X
      our cost--which is now either
      less or will soon be.

      Should we have sold at the top?
      Why would we do that? The "money"
      merely involves us with locally
      high progressive taxation, whereas
      the asset (the house) represents
      an important strategic advantage
      in a local market where housing
      costs have done nothing but go
      up on average for many decades.

      I haven't adjusted our mean cost
      on the NYB common lately, but it
      would be somewhere right around
      the quotation when adjusted for
      dividends which carry no tax
      liability in that particular account.

      If we also adjusted for all the
      trades we made before switching
      to better bank/financial trading
      media, that cost basis would be
      down around $8; but I try to account
      for trades on a realized and investments on an accrual basis

      But where we really "made the money,"
      that so concerns you, in this phase
      of the cycle was in the developing
      "inverse" etfs--SKF, DUG, and SDS,
      mainly. These are essentially
      the derivative equivalent of short
      sales against financial and energy
      indicies and against the S & P 500.

      But past a certain point, the money
      is really no good to us: nearly
      half of it is, (or will ultimately be,) siphoned off by taxation. It's
      supposed "value" is entirely a
      function of the credibility of the
      issuing Government, and, until
      very recently, the banks in which
      that cash was held were not to
      be trusted. (BTW, I shifted a
      CD to NYCB in 2007, also in
      consideration of their asset
      quality.)

      What you call investment is what
      I mean by "trading," I think.
      The profit picture there is something
      else entirely, because cash return
      @ very high time value is the ONLY
      objective.

      But, if that's what you want, I
      don't see why you're playing around
      with NYB instead of something with
      obviously better trading potential.
      For instance, you surely must realize just how much UYG will
      appreciate off the bottom of this
      financials led bear market. If you
      don't like the leverage, you can
      always "invest" less in UYG or
      try XLF. (KBE is also a nice
      index etf, more concentrated in
      money center banks.)

      Hopefully, you understand now;
      or, if you don't, you ought to:
      we never gave a damn about NYB
      and very little of a damn about
      whether our small investment position is "going up" or
      "going down." What we wanted
      was a fractional ownership stake
      in the rent equalized apartment
      market of New York City, and their
      common stock was an attractive way
      to that. (By contrast, we closed
      every trading position when the
      run, whether up or down, showed
      signs of petering out.)

      Actually, I haven't even kept
      very close tabs on the NYB stock
      price since we stopped trading it.
      Instead, I look the quarterly
      financial reports and the FDIC
      examination summaries of same.
      "How is 'our' loan book doing?"
      is what I really care about.

      If you want to belabor this
      tedious discussion further,
      I'd suggest we switch to another
      stock where you have no emotional
      involvement. For instance, why
      did we invest in ADP during the
      October debacle? What's the
      point of that?

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NYCB
15.51+0.110(+0.71%)Jan 29 4:05 PMEST

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