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New York Community Bancorp Inc. Message Board

  • joethebalognawhisperer joethebalognawhisperer Oct 18, 2009 9:08 PM Flag


    In my opinion we will see more delinquency cropping up in 3rd and 4th qtr numbers. This will force ficalora to think about setting aside additional reserves. It will also cool off thoughts of acquiring another bank as they struggle to keep the lid on this issue and related future losses.

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    • Tomorrow, Tuesday should be very interesting. Zions came out after the bell and did not meet expectations, although they were one of the ones taking TARP funds.

      There are also 5 or 6 more regionals to post their earnings tomorrow too.

      If next week, NYB has decent earnings, there should be absolutely no reason why this bank cannot shoot up, especially in the current environment.

      My fingers and toes are crossed.

    • If it gets bad they can cut the dividend some to help offset the increase in bad debt if it occurs. This is a good investment in my book.

      • 1 Reply to hat42
      • I am quite satisfied receiving NYB's generous dividend. The reason why the stock's price is so low, considering such a hefty dividend, is because wall street sees the dividend just barely covered by the earnings and this makes the street nervous. This does not bother me because I am more than confident that the future price will surely be much higher. In the meantime the low price continues to build my share count as the big reinvested dividend keeps buying shares at a rediculously low price.

        By the way, if NYB did decide to say, cut the dividend to 50 or 75 cents to conserve cash, wall street would take a more positive view and the stock would rise 1-2 dollars immediately.

    • I think that NYB's non-performing loans (NPL's) will increase, and management is actually preparing for it, as they have inferred, in their last quarterly conference call. However, they feel that NPL's will not translate in actual losses and/or charge offs. NYB will only reserve money for NPL's that they feel will become actual charge offs (losses), which will be very little.

      Of course, the analysts and investors will be upset, and will "trash talk" the stock and the management, and will begin to speculate that NYB will not be able to support the dividend, and that NYB does not have adequate reserves, and on and on and on.

      However, NYB's acquisition and business model will remain intact, and the rise of NPL's will not detract NYB from it's goal of an immediate accretive earnings acquisition. That is my opinion.

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