Dividend will only be cut if NYCB scores a big takeover target...
Most dividend cuts are because the bank cant financially continue to pay them. If NYCB has to cut dividend, it will be because they found a great takeover target, grow into larger bank, and are forced, by government regulation on larger banks, to hold on to more of their profits.
Big takeover = big win for the bank.
No takeover = big dividends keep coming to shareholder.
From what I understand, the only restriction on a healthy bank is that their payout rate can't exceed net revenue unless they get FDIC permission, which is usually granted on a limited basis if the bank is adequately capitalized. NYCB's payout rate is high, but doesn't exceed net revenue. I don't see them making an acquisition that would significantly reduce revenue or have a major impact on capitalization. But since short interest is up, we can expect to see more rumors about a pending dividend cut.