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Senior Housing Properties (SNH) Message Board

  • vickersviscount vickersviscount Jan 14, 2005 2:17 PM Flag

    Comment on Social Security discussion

    although I complained the other day about the SS discussion (and not talking SNH), it IS related to this stock -and for that matter all stocks. The proposal for 10% to be privatized, will put Trillions into the market just in time for those of use who are 45 and over to retire. This should help our nestegg (if we were good savers and investors) and pay for expensive retirement homes. . .Because the US economy is devolving (China is eating our manufacturing). . .we will need the charade of stock market prosperity to help us out. . .kind of like cheap credit is keeping the economy going now. . .so when cheap credit is gone, a rising stock market will take its place. . .kind of like the 1990's internet bubble. . .in one way or another, the younger generation will pay for our retirement. . .

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    • < Seems like the market is waking up to interest rates. Could we see a panic raising dividend rates for health care REIT's to 10% or so before settling back to 8% as interest rate increases level off? >

      I don't think so. I don't think the Fed will be able to raise rates throughout '05 without stalling the economy. The eco is already slowing. But I think the Fed will try, and the economy will stall. Health REIT's will be the place to be.

      There's a lot of fast house buying where buyers are picking up a discount from a developer. They want to be first so they can flip it to late comers at a much higher price. Those people owning a 1/2 built home when the housing music stops playing are going to be in a big jam. Housing has been the main economic driver to date fueled by refi's, easy credit to uncreditworthy first time home buyers, and speculators. I don't think it will last much longer. Housing and the eco will probably take a dive in '05.

    • REIT's not looking very good recently. I would make a distinction between Medicare and Medicaid as a previous poster suggested. Medicare is in more trouble than Social Security. It certainly did not help that Mr Bush threw a drug benefit on top of it and failed to fund it. However this trouble is still down the road mostly (not on Mr Bush's watch). Medicaid is in much bigger trouble in the here and now. Unfortunately Medicaid has more baring on nursing homes than Medicare. Medicare will only pay for 3 months of nursing home care and then only after a hospital stay (I believe). Medicaid will pay indefinately for the financially qualified (the poor and those made poor by circumstance). However just another financial disaster...

      Seems like the market is waking up to interest rates. Could we see a panic raising dividend rates for health care REIT's to 10% or so before settling back to 8% as interest rate increases level off? Given the longer term history it's possible. Investors chased the REIT's till the dividend rates got too low. It seems reasonable to suggest that the rates will respond in mirror image and go a bit too high. I'm a long term holder of some, however I'll keep some of my powder dry and ready just in case to buy more... much later. It's times like these when it pays to have a diversified portfolio and not just interest sensitive investments. It's not just cash in your hand that matters IMHO.

    • thx for that. 35 US soldiers dead so far today in Iraq, but he's worried about Soc Security. Sold NHP today, the whole group looks like they think Bush is looking for Medicare cuts to seniors while starting wars and making tax cuts permanent and guaranteeing big pharma profits.America gives him a pass, again.

      • 1 Reply to autoauto_1
      • Iceberg here!

        They alway lump Medicare and Medicaid. That's done on purpose, so as not to let you know where the real problem is. There's very little problem with Medicare. The problem is Medicaid. I live in New York City. The city is going broke paying for Medicaid. In New York taxpayers pay 23 billion out of New York tax receipts and another 23 billion out of federal tax receipts for a total of 46 to 47 billion for the people on welfare who receive Medicaid. Medicare is paid for by the workers who will receive it, and in New York the total is 35 billion. Also, Medicaid is growing much faster than Medicare. California's biggest expense is Medicaid and California is also broke because they can't come up with the billions more every year to pay for it. Medicaid has also busted the budgets of many smaller states.

    • Bring on the charade, I'm ready.

 
SNH
22.32+0.26(+1.18%)Nov 26 4:00 PMEST

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