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Waste Connections Inc. Message Board

  • VaderRules1 VaderRules1 Apr 18, 2000 7:01 PM Flag

    Why???

    Is there some kind of deviant plot being
    perpetrated on the shareholders of WCNX that we should be
    aware of???? Or are they just people doing their jobs
    for a potentially better employer???

    Please
    enlighten us on your brilliant conclusions!

    jjs

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    • JAGfn.com Staff on DB Alex
      Brown
      http://www.InsideTheWeb.com/messageboard/mbs.cgi?acct=mb1042743&MyNum=966518554&
      P=No&TL=966518554

      Common share offering of 3.85 million completed and will
      provide growth capital.

    • Many of us investors are on the same page and
      that is great and I aplogize if I have not kept up on
      various communications between posters. It is interesting
      that the "doom and gloom" posters have been silent for
      nearly a month.

      Recent market activity has
      validated that the waste market sector as whole was
      undervalued. I have been pleasantly surprised at how quickly
      the sector has rebounded, which exceeded my
      expectations, although an increase was clearly inevitable. I
      remain bullish on WCNX over the next 6 to 12 months.

    • However, I was just making a good natured joke about a past conversation with Next. I apologize if anybody took it out of the intended context.

    • Don't be too hard on Next based on current
      favorable market conditions. I have followed this and other
      waste boards for some time and overall I believe that
      Next offered valuable insight that should be
      considered going forward. I have certainly considered and
      evaluated Next's comments before investing. Contrary
      comments and views are very healthy to decision
      making.

      However, as I have posted earlier, I disagree that WCNX's
      and other waste Co.'s business plans were flawed,
      rather I believe that investors expected too much last
      year and over-valued companies.

      At current
      sector price levels, I believe that several waste
      companies offer great values including WCNX. Let's enjoy
      the ride and learn from all perspectives whether they
      project good or bad.

      Overall, I am glad to see
      many "intelligent" postings over the last 4 to 6
      weeks. I had become somewhat discouraged by the trash
      comments (that offer no value) as plagued by many waste
      boards over the last 12 months. Let's share information
      and perspectives.

      I will continue to offer my
      opinion and insight as long as this board maintains
      "intelligent" comments.

    • It looks like the 'marketplace' is starting to speak again... wouldn't you say???

    • Next - I respect much of your postings. However,
      I am not entirely in agreement with your assessment
      of a flawed business model. I submit to you that
      investors expected too much out of this business model and
      over-valued stocks based on unrealistic expectations of
      future growth. The decline in stock prices is not due to
      a flawed model, but rather unrealistic investor
      expectations.

      There are some unusual bad apples that tainted the
      industry:

      USA Waste's model was successful until it acquired
      WMI. Their business model basically imploded on this
      acquisition. They also discovered several billion in
      write-downs in the closet. By the way, the old WMI did
      "cheat" for 7 years by over-valuing landfill airspace and
      not writing off project expenses.

      Allied's
      model also imploded upon acquiring BFI. There is no
      precedent for successfully integrating this type of
      acquisition in the waste market as USA waste discovered.
      Allied's problems are further compounded by its
      acquisition valuation methodology that has mystified other
      waste co. execs. Allied has "over-paid" for many
      acquisitions and the result has impacted their balance
      sheet.

      Other companies have not met earnings expectations and
      have suffered in terms of stock price. This does not
      mean they are losing money, they were simply
      over-valued (as an example consider RSG which has a strong
      balance sheet)

      The garbage business in terms of
      demand has not changed that drastically as some would
      like us to believe. The disposal demand is still there
      resulting in strong collections and disposal.

      I
      beleive the business model can work if a companies are
      acquired at a reasonable price. The question that each
      shareholder needs to ask is: What is a reasonable valuation
      of a company utilizing this approach?

    • They didn't always have to cheat to make their
      estimates. The reason that earnings have eroded so badly is
      a combination of market conditions and their
      approach to market. Do you think that WMI cheated for 7
      years to EXCEED EPS expectations? Do you think
      Safety-Kleen was cheating to exceed the mark? No, they were
      just trying to deliver as they once did.

      The
      market changed, but they didn't appropriately adjust
      their business strategies. WCNX is selling you the same
      broken plan, in a new wrapper. It won't work.

      I
      have nothing against wastecos. I am totally against
      the sorry plan and anyone who would promote it. It
      wipes out shareholders, employees and the rest of the
      industry.

      I rail on the plan because it will keep this
      industry in the shitter as long as it's in place. Too bad
      that management is too hard-headed to admit it. The
      marketplace has spoken. I needn't give any more
      examples.

      Next

    • Maybe I am wrong, but didn't WMI take the big
      crash because of illegal accounting practices.
      Reporting numbers that the market wanted to hear instead of
      the truth??? And AW had trouble integrating BFI after
      the merger and has been unable to meet expectations
      on the street since, right???

      So obviously
      if the two big dogs in the industry make blunders
      that attribute significantly to the demise of the
      entire sector, all the waste companies will feel the
      pressure, right??

      If the younger companies coming
      along now stay away from those kinds of 'blunders',
      will they still collapse internally because of the
      strategy in place??

      Have a good weekend and oh by
      the way, I enjoyed choice 'b' the most!!
      LOL

      jjs

    • WCNX is copying the exact plan which led to the
      ruin of all those wastecos which preceeded them.
      Refresher time. Multiple choice question.

      The
      wastecos are in terrible shape because of:

      a)
      Foreign competition.
      b) Technological advances by
      Robot Waste Collection Consortium.
      c) The sagging US
      economy of the 1990's.
      d) The repeated blunders of
      management using a poor plan.

      Is it possible that ALL
      OF THE WASTECOS could be suffering due to a few bad
      eggs in management? Nah, I say that's unlikely. It's
      far more likely that the STRATEGY in place is what
      has led to the collapse.

      Since they share(d) a
      common strategy, it is reasonable to assume that the
      strategy is to blame. WCNX is a big proponent of that
      strategy.

      Since we all have seen the results of that strategy
      (Grow or Die), why should anyone expect WCNX to
      overcome the inherent flaws? It always leads to failure.
      Show me any long-term surviors of that
      strategy!

      Next

    • I'm sorry you misunderstood me. Your take was not
      what I meant. My point is that WCNX stock was doing
      just fine untill the blunders of other waste companies
      bottomed out the sector which brought all waste stocks
      crashing down to lows whether they deserved it or not.


      Without rehashing on your disapproval of the way WCNX is
      managed, I believe the company is making money and has a
      good earnings forecast which they seem to be able to
      meet.

      My point before was why blame WCNX
      management for the fallout of the entire sector???

      I
      agree that waste stocks aren't the best stocks to be in
      right now, but I wouldn't count them out
      forever.

      jjs

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WCN
42.69-0.16(-0.37%)Apr 17 4:05 PMEDT

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