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Radian Group Inc. Message Board

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  • slickvguy slickvguy Nov 8, 2007 11:30 AM Flag

    Egan Jones

    When I call it a ponzi scheme, I am describing the nature of the current model. I am nto using it in a derogatory sense, or saying it is in any way "corrupt" or wrong.

    It's just the reality of the situation.

    And I do not believe the loans are equally risky. No, I think the new loans are less risky - but not to a major degree. The subprimes might be of better quality, but they are still subprime!

    Q3 2007 NIW: Flow:
    Prime: 69.1%, Alt-A: 21.2%, A- and below: 9.7%

    You cannot characterize that as being more conservative than the past.

    The current situation is EXACTLY a ponzi scheme. Period. And let's hope they are able to pull it off! Because until such point that defaults level off and begin to decline, RDN will be in this precarious position.

    And as I have said before, there is really nothing else they can do! This is exactly what tehy have to do. Sell as much new insurance as they can. Reduce expenses as much as possible. Lower risk where possible. Stop structured (which they pretty much have done). Raise cash. Maintain their IFS rating.

    The rest is wait and see.

    There are three main risks as I see it: 1)something at FG blowing up. 2)IFS downgrade. 3)liquidity (future - not current).

 
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