Markets did exactly what I expected last week. We are headed lower for the major averages and RDN will most likely follow. If you believe in RDN as a long term story keep your powder dry and buy near $2.00. Overall markets are very weak and I see at least a 70% chance that they go lower from here.
I have been 100% right so far regarding the technicals on RDN. I wasnt expecting a coordinated attack to these levels in January but the stock started to break down in late March.
Overall bearish on markets but long term bullish on RDN
I have learned over the years to not deal or talk about stocks in "Absolutes" because it blinds one to other possibilities/risks that can and do frequently occur on a random basis. "This will not happen" or "that will not happen" is not a good way to invest. IMHO.
We won't see any offering stock at these low stock prices, or under $10 won't work either.
The solutions are slowdown writing new insurance or strong profits boosting capital; Combined with more reinsurance. The reinsurance relationships I have spoke of here already and I don't have time rightnow to rehash how it works.
We could go on imagining many other things but, I have to sign off now. See you in the morning, or Hasta Manana'
I understand that but there can always been external factors that influence the forecasts. Company is trending in the right direction and insiders buying is a good sign but make no mistake.....RDN is a high risk high reward stock right now. Teh clouds are slowly going away and we should have better clarity towards the end of this year on several fronts. I think that they will need to complete an offering by the end of this year or early next but I hope mgt can get creative in how it structures it. ie. pay off maturing debt in 2013, refinance with a convertible debenture with less than 15% dilution to the common stock or warrants with a strike price much higher than current share price.