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Radian Group Inc. Message Board

  • edi_kh2000 edi_kh2000 Jan 24, 2013 12:39 PM Flag

    Is Radian a House of Cards?

    Beginning Primary Delinquent Inventory
    (# of loans) Nov 2012 ( 92,770 )
    Ending Primary Delinquent Inventory
    (# of loans) Dec 2012 ( 93,169 )

    Denials started coming back.
    Note: Radian started increasing denials in 2Q11, as shown by these slides. Thus it makes sense that claims have only just started to surge this month, just over 12 months after they first ramping up denials (it takes a few months for new claim to be processed so lag is more than 12 months). Expect claims to continue to rise and cash burn to increase over the next few months.

    Most dramatic, Radian has resorted to rejecting claims. Since the first quarter of 2011, its rejection rate (in dollars) has climbed from 29.4% of all incoming claims for payment to 49.4% in the second quarter of 2012. In the first half of this year, it denied $523 million of claims, while honoring only $482 million.

    That cure assumption seems wildly optimistic. About 59% of its delinquent loans are either "pending" claims, that is, somewhere in the queue to be paid following foreclosure, or else 12 months or more delinquent. In the latter instance, homeowners are so far underwater that rescue and resuscitation is unlikely. Twenty-four percent of the delinquents are four to 11 payments behind on their mortgages and therefore also deeply troubled. The Radian spokeswoman said the company is properly reserved against rejected claims, despite the small addition to its IBNR.
    But perhaps most revelatory, Radian seems to be the only mortgage insurer that has been playing the rejection game with such gusto. MGIC, for example, in the first three quarters of this year rejected less than 7% of its incoming claims (by number) despite having capital problems of its own. On the same basis, Radian rejected more than 40%

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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