If past 4 weeks price trend + internal strength is a guide ---
RDN strong advance : GNW so so good : MTG flat =
Then RDN Q1 Earning will 3¢ : if GNW’s E beats only by 3¢ : MTG (under)
Check with Ned Davis Research report on 4/26 RDN’s SEASONAL CYCLE
From past 20 yrs of data, RDN daily price shows the trend of
Best 5th month: In May 60% of time beat S&P, with extra return : 2.6 %
Best 1st month: In August 55% of time beat S&P, with extra return : 11.8 %
Best 2nd month: In December 68% of time beat S&P, with extra return : 7.7 %
Best 3rd month: In September 65% of time beat S&P, with extra return : 5.8 %
Best 4th month: In March 50% of time beat S&P, with extra return : 4.2 %
I guess we have more to run. (thru summer peak)
The only question is how high can Q2 estimate beat (-7¢) ?
BTW, the cycle indicates May outperforms Feb, ( means Q2 E Q1 E ?)
If so, -1¢ beating -7¢ should be easy ?! I don’t know. LOL
Way I see it, MTG trailing by a quarter from RDN and GNW. Why we did not see big sell off in MTG. Markets are forward looking. Would have been nice to MTG pop though. Expect great #'s from RDN in the morning.