Now, I was in this board for quite some while and have been having Radian in my portfolio for years. When the price dropped, I averaged down and did the last time when Radian was at the low of just 2 bucks. So, ultimately I was glad this did take a nice run to 13-14 range.
The thing I do not like is that this is beeing heavily pushed by Cramer. I dont like this guy, I think in many cases he is a manipulator and way too often doing the opposite of what he does brings a better yield. So, I have just recently sold of all my Radian stocks in mid 13s range. Better to take a more than 200% profit than risking anything.
The question I have is - what are you folks thinking? This stock had a huge run. How much higher can it run? There are some good news in the pipeline most likely, but the question is if this is not already priced into the stock price. RDN has to turn profitable but in order to justify this valuation, they need to make a profit of more than 1 USD per share. Right now, that is most likely not possible. Also the current stock price is way too high above the book value. All this plus the daily Cramer pumping made me sell and take profits. If with his pumping it can not break 14, then I guess we are very near the tom at this moment
Some caution is warranted but one needs to keep in mind that with profits come the unlocking of the deferred tax assets and NOLs which were discounted to near zero 3-4 years ago. The current price, in my opinion, reflects a return to profitability coupled with removing the valuation allowances on the DTAs in the next 3-6 months. These two factors will/can drive the stock price higher. Thereafter, the market may accept a premium on the stock and be willing to pay 2X+ book/price. At this point (12-18 months) you can see a 25+ stock price. For this to happen we need the recovery in housing and jobs to continue and that is really the only unknown.