$90 per ton is 2010 Q4 prices. $117 per tons is the mention figure in the Q2 2011 report. The tonnage may vary, Siler Bay may not be the only MSB export port. Duluth and tow harbour. As long as the tonnage is more than 1 million tons I am OK for the 5.5% royalty.
I'm not so sure about Duluth. I wouldn't rule it out entirely, but I haven't heard or seen any evidence to suggest that Mesabi ore is mined and processed in Duluth. I'm opened minded about it, but am not sure how it would work. Do you mind explaining your thesis here? Thanks again for bringing up an interesting idea.
As OUS mentioned. If you look at the most recent quarterly filing you'll get a $117 figure for tonnes sold. We should find out for sure in less than a month though.
James, Vale is improving its marketability and transportation disadvantages. 16 new VLOC 400K tons, Qingdao is building a special pier for those monsters. These processing IO facilities in Malaysia and Saudis Arabia are a smart way to deal with over production and smaller markets. From a MSB point of view, we need for CLF, to build up a production buffer to eliminate the winter Soo lock closing. The Seaborne trade, I believe is the ticket. My guess is, as you were able to find out, Sept Ils is the buffer. CLF need to route through the St Laurent 2 extra 33K bulk carrier per month for 8 months to get the 2 million tons of IO lost between January through April. This mean that the 2 carriers you were able to locate at the Iroquois lock may very well be the buffer build up. These mean that the carrier count at the Soo lock may not give us the sales figure any more. I would think that the IO down the St Laurent is still own by CLF. It is added to the Sept Ils storage. Only when that is sold does the royalty is paid. The alternative would be for CLF to pay the royalty of the IO sent to the buffer, regardless if it is sold or not. This become a book keeping account that we, investors, will have difficulties to keep up with.
James there is no ore mined in Duluth, Duluth is a port city with a massive shipping and storage of taconite facility, the ore comes in by train and is loaded and shipped east by boat. I to have oftened wondered if any ore from MSB went out that way to maybe China but I doubt it. Silverbay and Two Harbors are much closer........ God bless..............
My take on tonnage and distro...i hope you are right on the $117 ...even if the price per ton is that, the distro can always be lower since Mesabi can put money towards unallocated reserve and therefore lower the payout
high estimate: 1.6MM tons @ $117 is a distro of ~ $0.85
Since there are several persons guessing on June shipments, I'll put in my estimate. There have been or are scheduled 19 ships to load IO in Silver Bay. Ten of them are 1,000 ft. ships carrying as estimated 60,000 tons/ship. My listing gives an estimate for June tonnage at 791,000 tons which added to April and May gives a total of 1,831,000 tons for the quarter. I was told that about 10% of the ore shipped is from mines other than MSB lands. Which brings the total of MSB IO to approx. 1,650,000 tons. A very good quarter. All MSB ore leaves thru Silver Bay. No other port at this time. In reviewing other years, they have the capacity to ship over 8 million tons per year with the 4 furnaces. Lack of orders is what is limiting shipments.