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Mesabi Trust Message Board

  • lylejr lylejr Sep 2, 2011 11:49 AM Flag

    dropping value

    Why is this stock dropping like a rock off a cliff?

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    • Increased risk of recession means a decline in demand for iron ore. MSB is still at least a $30 stock based on yield so at current price, MSB is a bargain.

      • 1 Reply to gpd8252
      • Short term, iron ore price is supported by the Chinese purchases. Today the IO price index price is $180.25 per metric ton. The tonnage out of Silver Bay is good, but do not know the sale price.
        On the horizon is the dollar inflation already 10% and the Chinese inflation at 9%. More than 50% of the Chinese economy is export. The Chinese 2 best customers, the US and the EU are sliding into recession if not depression. The ecobamic is in free fall, and the EU Greek and the PIIGS dette are putting the all Euro zone under such pressure that Greece may have to leave the Euro zone. If this happen, the Chinese economy will go south and the IO with it.
        The price of hot roll steel is down $1.00 plus per ton in 30 days. Acelormital (MT) is down $20 in 90 days. Do not forget the basic commodities are first to move up, and first to fall down. CLF is not a big player with China, they try but the mines location are too remote to be a competitive play. Since MSB depends 100% on the CLF sales, MSB has to be taken with great cautious.
        I sold my position last Friday.

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