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  • barron_rob barron_rob Feb 19, 2011 7:49 PM Flag

    Nomura

    DaninFW,

    I read that Ahern choosing to delay the interest payment on its second lien notes.

    Bonds went out at the end of the day 38-42 (flat). Any thoughts on this security or USCR?

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    • I was surprised that they didn't pay. I'm still holding. My average price is about 38 on $500K face. I'm in for the big money. As I stated before I think even in bankruptcy bondholders would get 55+/- on the dollar. Look at recent reports from URI and RRR. Ahern is doing as good or better IMVHO. I am very surprised that they legally could stop filing SEC reports even with a majority of bondholders approving. Something is definitely up. I have a theory that they have been buying back their bonds and will continue to do so. If they aren't thn current big holders are probably adding. Look at all the trades last 2 days. Constantly going back up. Wall Street Journal showed last trade at $45.50 yesterday and #1 gainer. I think part of their plan may be to buyback as many discounted bonds between now and August. They could use the $11 million in non paid interest to retire $25 million in debt alone at current prices. The smart money is gobbling them up. Time will tell. I had planned to add at 30....no such luck. Should have bought at 35.
      As for USCR we will all have a better take on 3-02-11 but I still think we will hit $18-20 in 2011. Again, I had planned to add a ton at $6......should have gotten at $7......DaninFW

      • 1 Reply to daninfw04
      • I would add I suspect the Ahern bonds will be well north of 50 this week. The average bond investor doesn't know that whoever is buying now will be the ones getting the unpaid interest of $46.25 per bond if/when paid. The bonds are currently earning new interest as of 2-15-11. However, since bonds are in default if you buy the bonds you don't have to any currently earned interest either. This could be real interesting. I will be an additional buyer on anything below 40 now. I don't think we will see that again. This reminds me of the Cooper Standard bonds I bought about 18 months ago at 11 cents on the dollar and sold at 78 cents. I sold too soon and would have gotten about 120 cents on the dollar but I settled for 7 times my money. The big boys know what unannounced deals were made to get this agreement and if anything they are adding to their position to strengthen their hand. Seen this dozens of times. By the way, I sent e-mail to yahoo yesterday to get USCR message board back up. DaninFW

 
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