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Gray Television, Inc. Message Board

  • daninfw04 daninfw04 Dec 8, 2013 9:56 AM Flag

    Random Thoughts

    Not many of us left it appears. Just thought I would share some random observations.
    1) Many stocks in sector like NXST and MEG hitting new 52 week highs past week. LIN very close to doing it.
    2) GTN on Yahoo now shows 2 analysts following the company. It appears Sidoti and Wells Fargo. Wells Fargo projects $1.22 and PT of $12-$14 whle Sidoti projects only $1.16 but PT of $17? Both project exact same revenue. Sidoti has as a Buy and WF as a Hold.
    3) What is GTN going to do with extra $50 million they are still sitting on as well as possible $225 million in additional shelf filings?
    4) The 2 analysts project average of $1.19 in EPS in 2014 but GTN earned $1.23 in 2012. Yes, it was presidential election year 2012 but 2014 IMVHO will be as big or bigger with at least $600 million more in PAC money. Now get this. GTN did $404.83 million in sales in 2012 but is projected to do $502.98 million in 2014....and yet earn 4 cents less on almost $100 million more in sales????????
    5) Stand alone question. Where do they find these analysts?????? Can they not even do basic math?
    6) In the last few presentations, GTN has listed on their slides "revenue growth from selling spectrum to wireless companies". I would like some help here. I understand the statement and the technology that will deliver the benefit but two questions. Doesn't FCC have to approve? I think this is one of the things GTN and SBGI has presented to the FCC as wanting to do but then give up something else? Also, bigger question. How much revenue could be expected? Other than probably initial capital outlays this would be about 100% margin minus 5% to the FCC. Right? Any experts out there?

    For the record, I am back to trading GTN and holding just under 38,000 newly accumulated shares after unloading 60,000 a week or so ago. Great trading stock. However, long term this is a keeper. At this point after taking over $300K in profit and up about $45K just from what I bought a few days ago I will be trading ST.
    DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Re point 6, I don't think there's much incremental value to be had here. The company repeatedly discounted the idea of selling spectrum saying they are making good use of it and pointing at the fact that their digital stations have very high margins as they share existing programming.

      If you're looking for a surprise bonus here I think you'd find it in the non-core assets that GTN says they have. The company mentioned a $100m figure for those in the past and a recent article mentioned that they've put some land up for sale that a local realtor valued at around $90m. Whether they'd ultimately sell it for that amount and what is the tax base for those assets is unknown but this could provide a nice upside.

    • Zacks recently had a sell rating on GTN but I notice it is now rated a BUY.
      Zacks rates the other broadcasters as follows:
      SBGI Hold
      LIN Sell
      NXST Hold

    • Hopefully Value and others can help with question #6.
      GTN close to 52 week high so if it can break 13.08, it could head towards 14 quick.

      As I have said in previous posts, you should be doing the analyst's job as you seem to have a much better sense when it comes to projecting earnings than those paid to make such projections.

      I do not think many on this board have sold out (I still think they are all here reading your posts, but continuing to post rarely).

 
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