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Gray Television, Inc. Message Board

  • value_invstr value_invstr Feb 11, 2014 9:27 AM Flag

    The market could not be more wrong regarding both Aereo and the FCC

    A lot of bad info out there. First, Aereo. The Supreme Court will decide with a decision coming out in the summer. Even if Aereo wins there is almost NO risk to the broadcasters. Why, because the Telecom Act of 1992 forces cable companies and telco's to pay retrans. They can't offer an Aereo service, it's about as clear cut as it gets. Many of the sale side analysts have finally picked up on this, took them a while, but guess they did some work. But I'll play along further, even if Aereo wins, Congress does nothing, and consumers run to buy the service and cut the cable subscriptions, what do you think happens? The broadcasters AND their affiliates just alter their signal. So if you subscribe to Comcast you get the football game, if you subscribe to Aereo you get infomercials and no game. The biggest misconception out there is that Aereo threatens the broadcasters, they do not, they threaten the cable companies.

    The FCC by law has to review ownership rules every 4 years. What happened the previous time they did this? We are still waiting for a resolution, it's tied up in the courts. AKA: It went no where. They just approved Tribune/Local TV and Gannet/Belo, do you really think they are going to then turn around and propose rules that go against what they just approved? Do you realize how stupid they look, well, trust me, they do! Even if the rules are bad for the broadcasters what do you think happens? It gets challenged by the courts again, and the FCC has lost repeatedly on the issue because they are forced to explain themselves. By the way, do you know who came up with the different ownership vehicles, that's right, the FCC! Any major ownership rule changes won't be coming from the FCC, it will come from Congress. Right now, their isn't an appetite in congress to do anything major.

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    • Not trying to be mean here- you really should not be messing with options if you are asking the question. You really need to understand "volatility" if you are going to be in options in any appreciable manner or length of time. Have you guys heard of FlashMarket Research? I made $33k on their last pick. Lisanne688 recommended them to me on this board

    • Value, you are a lot smarter than me. But, I ran cable systems for years. The broadcasters transmit FREE tv signals. It is a major requirement especially for those in rural areas that can't get cable. They by law can't scramble their signal. That's why Aereo is providing antennas to subscribers. That's the whole point of the Aereo case. It isn't complicated as many make it. Aereo has won in smaller courts almost every time. I humbly disagree with you. You also stated above that the FCC came up with current side car rules and then said Congress would have to approve. They did it before and could again. It's the uncertainty. I can find just as many lawyers to argue completely the opposite of you. The FCC has a new head and plans to change direction. The market apparently agrees with me again today. DaninFW

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

      • 2 Replies to daninfw04
      • Dan, you know I love you man but you are way off the mark on this one...

      • The broadcasters can easily convert to a cable channel if they want to. I'm not talking about scrambling signals, I'm talking about have one signal carry one thing and the rest of the good stuff go through the cable pipes. Can easily do it. Although it will never come to that because it's bad public policy and Congress would step in, but their is nothing stopping them. It's why the Fox CEO said what he said at the NAB last year.

        First, the courts have only decided on injunctions, a complete case has not been heard regarding Aereo. And they have lost in the courts, they lost in California and the lost in DC. They won their injuctions in New York and and in Boston. Even the judge that ruled in their favor in New York said he would not have done so if he wasn't bound by the Cablevision ruling.

        I did not say that Congress would have to approve the side care rules, I said any major ownership changes would come via Congress, not the FCC, because the FCC has a terrible track record of losing in the courts.

        I couldn't care less on how the market moves in the short term, hate to say bad information out there.

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