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New York Mortgage Trust Inc. Message Board

  • mintwaxed115 mintwaxed115 Aug 16, 2013 10:08 AM Flag

    Federal Reserve


    The next FOMC meeting is scheduled to be Sep. 17-18. With our tax & spend government struggling to service the massive debt, it's unlikely they will want to do anything to increase rates. I also believe excessive tapering (the rollback of bond buying) could damage our frail economy and reverse stock market gains. If the Fed decides to soft pedal tapering, we could see confidence in mREITs return. Rates have already increased on their own and have damaged the housing recovery. That's why we're seeing the dollar fall while gold & silver gain ground.

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    • I wish we HAD a 'Tax and Spend' government. Reagan started the 'Borrow and Spend' government when he tripled the National Debt. He raised the debt an annual average of 23.9%, GHW Bush raised it 13.9% annually, Clinton only 4.4% annually. GW Bush, who inherited a budget surplus stopped that baloney and raised the debt and average of 11.1% on an annual basis. For Obama to equal the Reagan record debt he would have to leave office with a 33 TRILLION dollar debt. Now if we include the 'Presidential Discretionary Spending' where GW Bush HID the costs of the wars he started, his record is as bad, if not worse than Obama's. You just keep supporting that 'Borrow and Spend' crapola till the interest on the debt sinks the USS America!

    • Huh? The entire purpose of QE was to lower longer term interest rates. That ship has come and gone. What the Fed does now in September means little cuz they have lost control of the long end of the yield curve. Does anyone really think the 10 year is going back to 2% if they doesn't taper at their next meeting?

      • 1 Reply to hatedahft
      • We are getting very close to a tipping point that will push housing back down and reduce growth in the economy. When you look below the headline news that the government puts out there it's not very pretty. 50% of home purchasers are all cash, new mortgage origination is dropping, housing in 90% of the country is still flat to down, foreign investors are fleeing, hedge funds are selling their housing investments, China & Japan are net sellers of long treasuries, 7 million people are unemployed or underemployed, inflation adjusted household income is still dropping, WalMart is warning on sales, etc. There is little demand for money. What, exactly, would cause interest rates to rise besides investors selling their bonds and speculation? Nada. We will peak the rates in the next couple of months and then watch them backslide. we are Japan in 1980.

        Sentiment: Buy

    • I think the Fed has other concerns that will lead to some sort of taper irregardless to the health of the US economy. What the market seems to not get is that dropping down to 60billion in injected liquidity each month instead of 85billion is still a heck of a lot of QE stimulus!

    • nickspinner Aug 16, 2013 2:02 PM Flag

      You are exactly right.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to nickspinner
      • The problem is that the IMF has estimated toxic debt losses of around $1.3trillion on the FED's books. Add $200 billion on Treasury bond losses and the FED is handcuffed for any emergency. The FED has never been in worse shape. It is reckless to continue monetizing debt when they have lost control of bonds. If the QE stops, it is more likely that stocks will fall but bonds will regain strength when inflation is controlled.

    • The way I see gold is that it is really only good for wearing, & besides being an industrial metal, silver is supposedly the "poor mans" gold.......
      What would interesting to talk about would be oil inventories that are a resistance level in regards to restocking ...
      Around my place gas was about $3.70+ a while back when oil was $97 a bbl... It is now $3.50'ish at $107 bbl. There is a severe disconnect in oil/gas pricing right now.
      Talk about things that can damage an economy, Im curious to see what will happen when oil/ gas pricing come back in line with each other......
      Nothing will kill a market faster than high gas prices...

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