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New York Mortgage Trust Inc. Message Board

  • mardermj mardermj May 7, 2014 2:37 PM Flag

    Yellen still worried about housing, rates will not rise for YEARS

    Madam Fed Chairman Yellen Rate Poppa the 1st spoke reams when the unemployment number hit 6.3%--it's built on Micky D part time jobs, and homes are NOT reflating with rates popping due to Fed tapering, so, don't expect the taper to continue at this pace, and don't expect overnight rates to be touched until March 2018, not 2015.

    It's helping MREITS which have now PLENTY of time to adjust, and good ones like NYMT bounding upward today on IMPROVED EARNINGS.

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    • One of the mythologies we have, is we "have to have" CD rates of 3-4%, which means and nobody understands, the degradation of the dollar has to proceed at 6% a year--which is exactly why everything in 1974 costs 10X today--don't even think of those websites saying 7X--they're measuring apples and gonads--a 240Z cost $3500, today, it's $35,000--that's all you need to know. Then, 40 cars under $2500, now, about the same, for $25,000.

      If you believe, as the rancid Fed chairmen do, that you have 2% inflation as a goal you might as well believe cancer and heart disease are a "goal"--they may be inevitable, but they're not "goals".

      The average salary's buying power in the last fifteen years has decreased almost 25% due to numerical salary decreases, and inflation they don't "count" as too "volatile". You don't build an expanding economy by taxing it, with higher interest rates, and that is just what giving money to banks is, a tax.

      The Fed isn't too smart, they just might start popping irates March 2015--but they really should hold off till real estate reflates to 2007 peaks--so that folks under water can get on to the next house, right now, they've no down payment even if they broke even with their purchase price, and we're up to April 2004 with respect to purchase pricing.

      See you in 2018

    • If rates go up to soon the risk is strangulation of the economy, If they hold, the economy will bump along for a while. How long??Who knows. Concern about rich/poor relationship. The enlarging gap could lead to de-flation. That is based on who is going to buy good/services if there is no middle class. Bias long on NYMT PSEC ARP ROSG NEWT AMBS

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I don't know if rates will remain low until 2018, (personally I hope they don't because it would indicate a ghost economy, acting like it is alive while being dead), but I also believe that short term rates will be held low "for a considerable time".
      Wishing you the best.

 
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