Looking to buy some MWD. Anyone have any opinions
on when would be a good time. It seems like the
upcoming earnings announcement will be on the upside,
except I am a little concerned about that since MWD
downgraded some brokerages. I hope this is not foretelling
their earnings (maybe spent too much on advertising
this past quarter). What does anyone think will happen
to the stock price if the FOMC raise rates at the
FOMC meeting at the end of this month.
20% grower, premier firm, past chance for bigger scandles to come out (pay off? ) so its up and away, what is a fair multiple for a 20% grower, shrinking their share basein BOOM times ??
Hey, Mr. Ktel: Weren't those stock picks actually
for Michelle on the JWEB board? Or were they for
Susan on this board?
Oh--I get it--you're just a
spammer, and your little angelfire spam page is just a
bunch of . . .
Oh well, be sure to say hi to Susan
* Institutional Money Flows: The Fed's decision
to raise the Federal
Funds rate by 25-basis
points and adopt a neutral bias going forward
a huge rally on Wall Street. Leading the charge
disparaged financial stocks - MWD gapped
$8 higher to $102 3/4,
SCH leapt $9 3/4 to $109
7/8, and JPM soared $4 3/4 to $140 1/2.
cyclical stocks such as paper and chemical issues were
Wednesday - IP fell $2 1/2 to $50 1/4, UK
lost $3 3/8 to $48 7/16, and
CHA declined $1 3/4
to close at $47 7/8.
SUSAN, HERE IS JP MORGAN
No reason to comment about one day's trading
activity in BSC....it could be a ton of different things
driving it......doesn't change the fundamentals though
that BSC is a good, though niche, player that'll
always trade at a discount to MWD/MER/GS.......If you
look at the multiples, the "second tier" firms (to use
the DLJ analyst's term) like BSC, LEH, they trade
(and always will) at healthy discount to the Big
As for Deutsche/BT....that's a mess - BT was already
in the crapper, and Deutsche doesn't have a good
record of managing firms they've acquired. Don't expect
they'd be a serious competitor to even the second tier
Our new pick is MDI
Entertainment - symbol MDIH - currently trading near $2.
MDI Entertainment, Inc. (a fully reporting company)
specializes in creating, marketing and implementing
entertainment-based promotions to the North American lottery
industry. More than likely you have run across some of
their promotions at your local convenience store: MDI
Entertainment's current lottery promotions include scratch games
featuring properties such as Harley-Davidson, Star Trek,
Wheel of Fortune.
Revenues and profits for MDIH
are on fire: For the most recent 9 months they
created over $6,000,000 in sales, with over $1,100,000 in
profits or .14 per share. These revenues represent an
increase of over 400%. If MDIH comes out between .16 and
.19 per share for the full 12 month period (which we
expect they will), then applying a mediocre PE span of
around 15 to 20 would be equivalent to a share price of
near $3 to $3.75. A much higher PE (and therefore
stock price) could be attained when the company becomes
listed on a larger exchange (NASDAQ, AMEX, etc.). The
company has talked of such a move.
MDIH has some
interesting developments that could help propel the stock to
new heights: one of their new sites
http://www.lotterydeal.com will enable lottery players holding non-winning
tickets to purchase themed merchandise. The site will
offer a vast array of different merchandise items
associated with MDI's licensed lottery properties. The
non-winning tickets will, in effect, be valuable coupons.
Ticket holders will be able to apply the original price
of the ticket for discounts towards the purchase of
the merchandise available on the web site. Tickets
can be aggregated for discounts of up to 20%.
Recent news announced that New Jersey will be the first
state lottery with an MDI web site. The state will
receive 10% of the merchandise revenues. If all states
begin moving toward some type of merchandise web site
in conjunction with their lotteries, we would expect
huge revenue increases as a result.
company site is located at
A link to their SEC filings can be found
under the section titled "Investors".
Considering MDIH's fundamental value and exciting
developments, we feel this company is a great short term
If there are no Harley-Davidson (R)
scratch tickets in your area, here is a link which shows
I am assuming that momentum will carry this little
gem towards the $5 to $10 range (imo).
Remember, the reason the long bond hit historic
low yields in Oct was because the market panic
created an enormous flight to quality into govies and out
of corps and high yields. That same panic slapped
the brokers down to fundamentally ridiculous values
(which became apparent once the Fed eased in mid-Oct,
the market took a deep breath, and anybody who bought
a brokerage did very well).
As you probably
know, the market priced in the fed action today weeks
ago, and indeed took the 25 bp move as great news
(better than the 50 bp move, but more importantly was
their "neutral stance" statement) - as we saw the long
bond go under 6%. Bottom line however is consistent
increases in rates aren't generally good for the brokers.
That's why MWD, LEH and GS all warned on their analyst
calls that results in the 3/4 quarters would likely be
lower than the first and second quarters (they weren't
saying the results would be bad, just below the record
high clip in Q1 and Q2
maybe my chart is wrong, the long bond yield
peaked at 440 or so in Oct. MWD bottomed in OCT @ 37 or
so, now the long bond is 610 and MWD 95 ??? MWD is
growing and doing it all right, if the fed raises rates ,
I see the long rate going down, and stocks want to
go up they are just waiting for the announcement,
the worriers will sell there last little bit, and
away we go UP. It would take 50bp to break the mkt
which would be a buy anyway...buyers want in just