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ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury Message Board

  • snugly60031 snugly60031 Sep 28, 2010 11:41 PM Flag

    Ticker Guy's Interesting Perspective

    http://market-ticker.org/
    There are several topics, but if you get to the one dealing with QE prospects, he points out that the Dollar devaluation that has occurred so far with QE lite and the inflation that larger QE would cause would be very painful for those with lower incomes. IMO if you couple that with the news out yesterday that Fed was considering a measured approach to QE, instead of "shock and awe" anticipated after last FOMC to likely begin after November meeting, maybe the Fed knows better than to do wholesale QE and was only posturing. Why? Maybe to help sell some treasuries at record low yields as long as that game lasts.

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    • Don't buy TBT until you are absolutely positive interest rates are going up. The Fed has total control of interest rates. Interest rates relate more to the cost of carrying the National Debt than anything else. If intererst rates go down the cost of the debt is low. If interest rates go up the cost of the debt is high. The Fed MUST keep interest rates going down. That is their only game. They have no choice. You have all lost money betting that interest rates were about to reverse and go up. That may not happen for a long long time if the Fed has its way. First the USA $ must be devalued to about 1/2 of where it is today. That will take years. Then they will pay off most loans/debt with the devalued dollars. Then they can afford to let interest rates go up, because that will strengthen the dollar but after the debts are paid off the Fed will not care. I see this scenario regardless of who wins the next election. There is no other way to handle the huge USA debt. Don't be fooled by small fluctuations in TBT. It has to keep going down, down, down. When it gets to zero interest rates it will cost the USA nothing to service its huge debt. The Fed will then be happy. Then, any money they raise will actually pay off the debt. Can't you see that this is the only plan available?

 
TBT
45.23-0.72(-1.57%)Jul 31 4:00 PMEDT