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ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury Message Board

  • market_logic2010 market_logic2010 Oct 27, 2010 4:00 AM Flag

    The Inverse of 1981

    1981 was the greatest bond buying opportunity of a lifetime, if not ever. I was a heavy buyer of 10 and 20 year bonds (I'm 58). 2010 is perhaps the greatest bond selling opportunity of a lifetime. The fact that investors are paying $105 to buy a $100 tip bond shows that inflation expectations are soaring. At some point, very soon, this will translate into enormous selling of ordinary bonds (non-inflation protected). It will be of panic proportions and there is nothing the FED will be able to do to stop it.

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    • TBT didn't exist in 1981, when long bond rates topped 15%. But I have made a calculation that TBT, if it existed, would have been at $375 at 1981 bond rates.

      I don't think TBT is going to $375, but $80-110 is certainly possible over the next year if bonds back up to 6 or 7%..

    • Good to have Bill Gross on the bond bear side. Gross calls QE2 a "Ponzi Scheme". Wow!

    • congratulations on a good investment.

      why not qe3? isn't this essentially what the fed is doing with all it's actions - keeping a lid on long-term rates? for the longest time, we were told that the fed could only control short-term rates - now we see them totally screwing with the market.

      i have been invested in tbt for sometime now, as well as rrpix and ryjux, thinking that this is insane. fortunately, my other investments have panned out well, so i am ahead of the 'game' for now.

 
TBT
46.32+0.42(+0.90%)Jul 28 4:00 PMEDT