The lows were almost certainly put in last week. There could be a low volume retest of the lows around $25, but it will fail (as it did Friday--TBT up after hours). Friday may have been the retest. Over the next month, TBT should be above $30, perhaps $36. Over the next year, TBT will challenge $60-80 area as 20 yr rates rise back above 5% and perhaps 6%.
i will say it again---rates could never reach 5 or 6 % as all the govt, and corporate, and municip debt could not get serviced----the world would simply implode--the only reason we are creeping along the bottow IS BECAUSE THE 10 YEAR is at 2.3%!!!!why do you think the spike up on Thursday in rates was answered with a 'FED MANIPULATED" rally on Friday---they will not let it happen because it cant. Did anyone see the damage caused by a .15 basis point rise on thursday??? if that was a 1.5% rise the world would collapse
The fed can't let the housing market implode otherwise we will be in a depression. Oh wait, the housing market did implode and we are in a depression. The Fed can't let gold break 1K otherwise the dollar's reserve status will begin to unravel. Oops, it did break 1k, in spite of all the uninformed and ignorant predictions of successful, long term manipulation.
The fed does not control the world and cannot in the long run control markets. At the end of the day, confidence, and the lack there of, overrides any institutions short term mainipulations.
I hope you are right! I thought those scenario would happen last, then this year. I do not think 60 - 80 but in the 40's or low 50's could happen ... if the economy turns positive (3 to 4% GDP). Economy turns up, then Uncle Ben will not keep the Fed rates down low until mid 2013.