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ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury Message Board

  • ex.goldbug ex.goldbug Sep 27, 2011 4:07 PM Flag

    Who Are the Greater Fools Buying 30 yr Treasuries @ <3%?

    These fools deserve medals for bravery, or stupidity. The only fools I see doing the buying are at the FED; everyone else appears to be selling, including Europeans and Chinese.

    Bottom line: TBT should be back above $25 soon unless market crashes. But a crash just delays the inevitable rise above $25, and ultimately towards $50.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Remember the dot com bubble...

      Those who bought 30 year treasuries yielding over 4% earlier this year were called stupid, and now they are up over 40% on the position, so likely they are continuing to add more money to the momentum trade and continuing to make more money at this moment. Just like those who bought AOL and Enron early and often, a bust is inevitable but markets tend to stay irrational for very long periods of time.

      We could see 2% or lower on the 30 year as more and more hot money keeps flowing in, and unlike gold/silver/oil/etc, the CME can't shatter it with margin raising.

      So best to just stay on the sidelines...maybe short TLT (instead of going long TBT) if you have to be in. There will be a time for TBT, but it looks like it won't be 2011 just like it wasn't in 2010 or 2009.

    • I'm buying a new home and I've got locked in today with a sub 4% 30 year loan.

    • joeac2 Sep 28, 2011 12:07 PM Flag

      I am not sure how you see a trading range 30 year rates were over 4% less then two months ago they just dropped to 2.79 that is one big trading range

      • 1 Reply to joeac2
      • The Fed has the rates down to where they want them. Any trouble in Europe and the rates will go down temporarily but will return to the current (ridiculously low manipulated) rate. Any rise above the current rate and the Fed will step in to force them back down. Clearly the Fed has a target rate and any up and down movement is just noise. Trade the noise. Ultimately, the Fed will just set rates if they have to.

    • I think it'll take more time than you think.... If it doesn't get past 20.75 on close now, I think it's back in the decline mode (FOR NOW). It's been in a free fall since August 1st, continuing to make lower highs and lower lows--just check out the chart (which doesn't lie). Remember the Fed hasn't really even begun on the $400 Billion. Give it some time, they'll be a better entry point.

      • 1 Reply to lgrala
      • joeac2 Sep 28, 2011 9:56 AM Flag

        When they start to pull out of bonds they will be fighting for the door. Charts say rates never stay this low for a extended time. Fed will be buying at the same time Gov sells long term debt and if the EU gets it's act together they will sell, as well as China. When China starts the rest of the world will follow.

        Nobody whats to get stuck holding long term debt at these low rates.

        It's just a matter of time

    • to $130.00

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