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Baidu, Inc. Message Board

  • ilygod ilygod Feb 1, 2008 3:02 PM Flag

    WSJ article regarding slowing speding in China

    Weekend edition to report decrease spending in China. BIDU will be hurt on Monday.

    This is why analyst's have a target price <$200.

    Watch out on Monday.

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    • the web in china is growing by 7 million people a month. who cares about a spending report? there is a tsunami of new web users and web business in china. they have 500 million cell phone users for heavans sake!

    • "Competition from search engine rivals including Google, Alibaba/Yahoo, Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU), and Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) could steal market share from Baidu. Unexpected changes in Chinese government regulation could also severely affect Baidu's business model. Expansion in overseas market may not be as successful as expected due to a lack of experience.

      The stock is currently trading at 72x our estimated earnings per share (EPS) for fiscal year 2008, which is significantly higher than the industry mean and that of its Chinese peers. The stock is also trading at 46.5x our estimated EPS for fiscal year 2009."

      BIDU's valuation is just way too high at these levels when you compare it to almost any Internet stock. The bubble needs to come down a bit and then we can be comfortable again. I'm sure BIDU's guidance will call for a softening in the Chinese economy due to America's recent slowdown (recession).

      Buy BIDU after the earnings at $150/share. You will be able to buy more shares using the same money from your sale today. It makes perfect sense. Amazon, Yahoo, Google all disappointed with earnings. BIDU will disappoint as well sending the stock down to a reasonable valuation at $150/share.

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