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Baidu, Inc. Message Board

  • eurosasa00 eurosasa00 Sep 3, 2009 8:01 AM Flag

    Office say end of recession? My opinion

    Very deciving ofcourse - what do you expect from GOVT at this point - but i will ride this money train until correction. They are trying to pump it up as much as possible and it might run into early next year before you see 10-20% correction.

    Why are they saying end of recession seen in august? Dont make sense.

    For recession to end - There must be 2 consecative quarters of positive GDP. Now, 3Q GDP will probably be positive due to their cash for clunkers and other programs. However, a lot of their ( GOVT) programs end or have already ended (layed off folks get money only to 12-18months after layed off - most of this money will stop coming for folks and they cant find new jobs) and there is only hope that holiday spending account for positive 4Q GDP and THEN OFFICIALLY WE CAN SAY, RECESSION ended, BUT not till then.

    (just like to go into recession you need to have 2 negative GDP quarters)


    Short term, i think this market still got much upside, but just wait till january - March time period. So, if you are long, i suggest you ride this into late november and then either short or have cash on side - but do not hold long position into january- march time frame.


    I trade daily options, so i will play any direction market goes on chart and other indicators. I think market will still keep going up into november/dec and then watch out for stronger steep correction.

    Also as 3GDP is positive in 3Q, watch for FED to start to raise rates this fall (only to 0.50%)


    Take care all, and good luck all - Post your opinion if you want.

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    • eulette@rogers.com eulette Sep 3, 2009 7:02 PM Flag

      pretty good, just about right was in a meeting so could not reply earlier

    • eulette@rogers.com eulette Sep 3, 2009 6:52 PM Flag

      ca va bien, j'ai appris francais a l'ecole, mais je l'ai perdu. Mes enfants sont francophone et ils vont a une ecole francopone.
      Oui j'aime la poesie et la musique francaise
      J'essai de comprendre les diagrammes mais je je le trouve tres difficile.
      Je suis une nouvelle trader de Baidu, J'echange depuis janvier 2008 mais, j'ai perdue trop de monaie depuis le crash. J'essaie de regagner mon argent. cet bon, je nne peux pas continuer en francais parce ce que je suis tres fatiguew de penser en francais, pardon moi mon ordinatuer ne peus pas faire les accents.

    • Yeah, Eurosasa, I just "waved" good bye to my Baidu and Google holdings ... Nobody knows what the market is going to "behave" tomorrow. My philosophy is "better safe than sorry", hence, "pocket the GREENS first and think later" ... OUT I go ... Will revisit the market and Google & Baidu darlings tomorrow if opportunity allows ...

      Il y a toujours demain, demain et demain ... sur la bourse du Wall Street!

    • You are right

      I am thinking about selling those 3 calls i got for 5.7 now around 8...I ll take profit on those. I ll take this profit and call it 12k profit for the week.

      I will hold DEC 400 calls tho and those other 2 puts (330 BIDU SEP Puts that i bought at 6.8)

      Unemployment numbers could start sell off or if unemployment goes toward 9.0-9.2% it could be good for market. (last number was 9.5%). If it goes up, market going down fast.

      GL

    • Eurosasa: The stock market looks very weak this afternoon. It may be wise to lock in the Baidu and the Google GREEN profits made from yesterday's scoops. We just cannot be too greedy in this stock market environment. Tomorrow we may have a "recharging" opportunity with the unemployment report due out and the long holiday weekend ahead. I may regret this but I would say "sayonara" to Mr. Baidu and Mr. Google for GREENS today! Bonne chance a` tous!

    • Non, thank you for the head-up, but I am NOT a short seller at all. NO option play for me. NO short for me either. I am only the one-sided LONG trader! I buy Baidu at dips and sell Baidu at rebounds. The same as Google and many other stocks. Merci bien de parler en francais avec moi aujourd'hui!

    • M = P/E = 330 / 6.5 (estimate for 09) = 50 multiple

      Growth = YOY = 45%

      PEG = 1.1 (not that expensive for growth.

      Usually stock with multiple of 20 are expensive but if growth is there to support that multiple, then i can be justified.

      NOW 2010 Earnings is to be close to 9

      Keeping same multiple Price of BIDU can be expected to hit 9 x 50 = 450 a share

      I would not be surprised to see 420-450 by end of year on great 3Q earnings and few upgrades (setting new 52 week high)


      SO to me, high multiple backed up by high growth is ok.

      Now high multiple but 15% growth, then it is expensive.


      Short term, you could see 299 or below, but i would not go bet against this stock going into fall earnings run.


      So you just look at those listed things and make a decision on a stock? I think there is more to it? growth...charts,..momentum...etc..

      GL

    • He said thank you very much for your translation your french is very good.

      vous améliorez bidu court tandis que vous avez une chance parce que je la garantis que descend d'ici !

    • Merci beaucoup pour votre traduction. Votre francais est tre`s bon!

    • I WILL TRANSLATE THIS FOR ANYONE WHO DONT KNOW FRENCH. HE SAID

      Oh hello, hows that? You speak French too? I like the French language, the French music and French poetry! Summers you a new trader of Baidu? I traded Baidu since October 1, 2007. I left the Baidu board in November 2008 in spite of j traded Baidu considerably. I was allocated just to the council of Baidu September 1 (two days ago)… C' is my pleasure to meet you!

      MY FRENCH ISNT TOO GOOD BUT I THINK THATS WHAT HE SAID.

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175.22-2.06(-1.16%)May 5 4:00 PMEDT