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Baidu, Inc. Message Board

  • nosheetnonsense nosheetnonsense Jul 20, 2011 4:11 PM Flag

    Technical (and fundamental) advice for Shorts.

    Okay, here's the deal. Pull up a nine month chart so you can get a good perspective. We're coming out of a pullback that happened between $138 and $148. The mid-point in that pullback is about $143. The trendline below that pullback was at about $115. That's how low it got when it bounced off the trendline. There's about 23 points between the starting point of the advance, at the trendline, and the middle point in the recent pullback. When you get a minor pullback in an advance like we just had, and when the pullback's done it breaks through resistance and keeps going higher, the advance typically extends a distance equal to the distance between the trendline and the pullback (which we just said is about 23 points). The center of the pullback is around $143 so there's a good chance it's going to add another 23 points which would put it around $166. The wild card is the earnings announcement. There's no point discussing the downside risk. We all know what it would look like on a miss. On the upside, a jump ahead on spectacular earnings could overshoot a 23 point estimate ($166) by a wide margin in subsequent days of trading. I'm just pointing out a common technical pattern. After a pause like we've just seen a stock is likely to extend an equal distance from center point of the pullback so that looking back the point of conjestion (pullback) will appear to be in the middle of long advance. As always, prudent trading would advise that you're taking an unjustified risk shorting going into earnings. There will be overbought shorting opportunities before and after the day of earnings. Don't put your money at risk on a speculative and reckless short gamble going to earnings!!!! ... that is all ... out!

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