It seems like it peaked and then sold off because people are tormented by AMZN and AAPL and how the reacted after earnings.
What if this doesn't disappoint?
And besides AAPL and AMZN were way higher than BIDU is. And they didn't sell off going into their earnings report. No,, I think this is different. People are of a mind set that this will sell off after earnings so everything is anticipatory here.
Which in my opinion makes it different. What do you think? Adults only and no shorts please. Thank you
Amadeus, your numbers are roughly correct. Bidu trades at p/e over 60, but the reason people like myself still believe it's a fundamentally sound buy at that level is that it's trailing 12 months vs. next 4 earnings announcements (starting with tonight's) expected earnings increase is 100%, giving it a PEG (price to earnings ratio / (earnings) growth of 0.6. Anything under 1.0 tends to attract us.
I think your request of a 40% jump quarter over quarter is an unfairly tough bar to jump, as it would require a yr over yr increase of something like 200%. I think the more traditional year over year comparison of tonight's number with 2Q, 2010 makes more sense (with an expected jump of 90%-ish).
maybe bidu is like goog back in early 2000. remember when most said goog cant go higher. comparisons dangerous, but internet has only a 40% penetration in china--and bidu has a virtual monopoly (pun?). some say internet video in its infancy. China's overall standard of living rising fast. i am hoping bidu continues to run up. yikes-i hate this wall of worry, hope we climb it.
Yeah, and market sentiment. I was totally off on my BIDU call this morning. What was up with that last minute Goldman Sachs warning on BIDU though??? Did they want to load up pre-earnings???
I was totally off on my market sentiment too. I switched sides and joined the rally with MRK and EXC, stocks I've held in the past and give good dividend returns. I won't see them appreciate much but their dividends are around the corner and they also don't tank hard either when the inevitable correction to today's and perhaps this coming week's exuberance kicks in. Remember people, we're in a secular bear market. Nothing structurally has changed. Unemployment is still high. Consumer confidence and credit in the toilet and a lot of industrials are giving dismal guidance for Q4. I'm with longs now but still have some puts on high flying MOMO's out there.
It's amazing how the right question asked brings out the thinking people lurking in silence here. My warm thanks to all who treated my query with respect and returned with good insight and reasonable input. Thanks And I hope we are all rewarded for our trust and patience.
Has the announcement time been changed to just after market close, or do you mean tomorrow morning?
Originally, it was scheduled for 8pm eastern, but that time seems so weird to me that a change seems possible. Original press release: http://ir.baidu.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=188488&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1616789&highlight=
I'm guessing here because I wouldn't compare Baidu to anybody but GOOG, but maybe they're just mentioning those companies (NFLX, AMZN, even AAPL to lesser extent) as examples of companies who were punished after missing their earnings.
I don't know how you compare Baidu to Apple or Amazon. Apple is Tec platform, Amazon is e-commerce. Total different industry. I can see you comparing your analysis to GOOGLE that makes sense, but you cannot compare apples to oranges. Just because the meat tastes similar doesn’t mean it’s from the same cow. Maybe i just don't understand??
No, you're right. The comparison to Google is by far the best (and, really, the only trully predictive analogy). Long term holders of Baidu (like me) are probably including AAPL because Baidu is preparing to enter the smart phone market in China with a ripoff of Google's Droid system called Baidu Li. (Although the entire smartphone industry in China is behind the US; only 10% on the 900 million cell phone subscriptions are 3G, and 4G is still in experimental phase).
WYNN got punished for turning in respectable profits. BIDU has a PSR of 37 and a PE of over 60 if Google Finance is correct. The expectations for astronomical numbers like that would have to be something like 40% QoQ growth which would put the Q3 revenues in the $5B range. Likely?
A PSR of 37 and a PE of over 61??? Are these numbers on Google Finance correct?
If BIDU does NOT show QoQ growth of about 40%, then it will slump after earnings. We're talking reporting revenues approaching $5B! Likely? Who knows. WYNN got punished for turning in respectable earnings profits.
I think this is an excellent thread, as it applies substantively to everyone's near term future. In my own quest to figure out if there'll be a selloff this quarter, I've looked up some data that might help the discussion. Here's my review of the evidence for whether there's been selloffs for the last 4 quarters:
1. After the end of July (2Q reported) there was a substantive selloff.
2. After the end of April, again a sizable selloff.
3. After the end of January, not really any selloff.
4. After the end of Oct, 2010, again a sizable selloff.
So, 3 out of the last 4 quarters have had selloffs, with the 4th being sort of a draw. Alone, that data argues for a sell off this time.
But, all 3 of the quarters that had definitive selloffs began from price levels that reflected all time highs, whereas the one draw quarter hadn't seen as much runup pre-earnings. Since this quarter's price heading into earnings is nowhere near an all time high, it would seem the draw quarter is the closest past match.
So, conflicting data and a pre-earnings price level so far below an all time high that maybe that data can't be trusted anyway.
Above are factual statements, the following is pure opinion: IMHO, due to an uncharacteristic lack of run up to an all time high, there's some short term upside potential from great earnings numbers tonight, but that the sell off arch will probably reassert itself within a few days of the report. Basically, I'm less pessimistic about the share price 2 to 4 weeks out from here than I usually am (esp for Bidu), but I still remain slightly pessimistic overall.
Full disclosure: please note, I don't attempt to guess the very next day's direction, which is variable, only the general direction the stock price moves over a week to a month after earnings. For an excellent study on the very next day, see this article and click to his earlier articles at seeking alpha: http://seekingalpha.com/article/302615-baidu-3-focal-points-for-q3-earnings?source=yahoo
Great pre-earnings think!! What happened to AMZN/AAPL is no guarantee for BIDU. Market moves at will, has a poor memory of other stocks earnings.
I'm expecting surprise earnings for a POP after 5:00 p.m. today.
GOOOOOO BIDU !!!!
Right.. I put AMZN in Yahoo then clicked on one year then put BIDU in as to compare. 1 year and also 6 months.
AMZN was much higher by that reference and then I did AAPL the same way. Same results. AAPL was much higher.
By my reckoning it seems like BIDU could easily go up to 170. And it might not have an abrupt sell off at this point.
ANYONE WHO LOOKS AT THIS TRY THE SAME THING PLEASE... Thanks to all the great people here.
There may be a few bad apples but mostly some fine folks here. IMHO