to study post earnings sell offs, i'm thinking about looking at the last 4 Q's (starting w/ 2Q); then, if it looks like more data is needed, maybe looking back further.
can you guys help me with what data we'd want to gather to look at them scientifically? i have a few suggestions, but there's prob some stuff i'm forgetting. here's my current, hand scrawled on a postit note, list:
1. price situation into earnings day: was there a big runup? was it to an all time high? if y, how much higher was that ATH than the previous ATH? hmm, i guess these q's are attmpts to answer 'what was mkt's expectations of earnings report'? so, def gather data, what was price at 4pm, before announcement?
2. how much was earnings surprise? (i think these were all positive surprises).
3. broadly, what happened then? so, price in AH, if that's even gettable. if it's not, maybe opening price next day could sub? also, 4pm price next day? then trend over next few days (5? should we gather each day price, or just gen trend?) price 2 weeks post report? price 3 weeks? 4 weeks?
any suggestions? q's that should ask but i forgot, or q's i listed we don't need, or anything else, for that matter.
My 2 cents? Right now, today, the max pain on the weekly options is $140....look at the pps. Max pain for Nov calls is $130 & Dec is $135. Doesn't bother me this time around, as I think it breaks $150 easily here soon. The House has made their monies on this pup......time to take a little hit & give some back. Ben can make or break today....
i don't think we should read too much into the price changes for mon, tues or today, as they're all really just reflecting macro market forces. i think that once we clear out those forces (which should balance over time to at least even), that we've still got an open question about which (true) way Bidu's going to trade post earnings, by how much and for how long.
this is also foreshadowing (cuz i'm trying to class the joint up a bit -- jk) because i'm going to try a Bidu board experiment, to see if collective action is possible on building a worksheet to study the post earnings sell off phenomenon: does it exist? will it exist this time? how much might it affect share price? how long might it last? etc.