Did you become the proud owner of some bouncing baby Yoku today? If the answer's 'not yet', you might want to consider adjusting your buy order upward a few cents to get some.
I'm about to start researching the play properly and I'll return to the board when I've got a more solidified play in mind, but my instinct's are telling me that the super-short term type trades you like best might work great for Yoku today, with an eye toward closing the position Mon night or Tues. Fwiw, i just entered a buy order at $19.51 to take up a super short term long position (to go w/ my small, existing, permanent long position in Yoku). No guarantees, of course, but I'm confident enough to place that order for half the total shares I'm expecting if the play works out, even before formalizing the research (unusual for me).
BiduTrader: Yoku's getting a fake pre-earnings bump today (as I write this, up 5.6%), so if you want out of your $20 shares without waiting till next week's (real) earnings announcement, then today's prob a good day to do it. $21.50 as I write this.
I think I'm going to follow that strategy. Also, if the market does correct Yoku back down when it finds out earnings aren't till next week, then we should be able to trade the earnings report runup a 2ND TIME this quarter, next week.
That prospect is too cool for me to resist, so I'm going to watch the price carefully today, but I'm definitely going to sell. Just one guy's opinion.
BiduTrader: I was wrong about the earnings date. Instead of today, it's next week. In terms of trading, I'm just going to hold my Yoku until then, and we can talk about what to do w/ Yoku then.
I'm starting to think maybe I should have more of a long position in the Chinese, user generated internet space anyway, so I spent this weekend comparing Yoku and Tudo.
Since Bidu's 'settled down' to 50% projected year over year earnings/revenue growth, we can really 'only' expect 30% to 40% price growth per year moving forward. From a long term, buy-and-hold perspective, the next Bidu's not Bidu, and I'm thinking that proper decision making between Yoku and Tudo might land it.
Anyway, sorry I was wrong about Yoku's earnings date.
Ha: I think Yoku's up today because everybody thinks tonight's their earnings report (an easy mistake to make; I made it).
So Yoku's getting a pre-earnings runup without the inconvenience of actually having to announce earnings. Pretty neat trick!
I wonder if Yoku's smart enough to have done that on purpose.
here is my take：
Short 20 Nov 24 calls and long 10 Dec 23 calls, Your cost is $200 + commission. By 11/19, you'll start losing money if YOKU> 26.3, and make $3k if YOKU@24, make $1.5K if YOKU@21, and make $481 if YOKU@18, and lose all your $200 if YOKU tanks to 10!
margin is 3K for this paired trade.
Warning, you have to know what you're doing when trading complex options, especially naked short, you need to make sure YOKU will not have a super blowout earning!
i bought a small, fun tranche at 20, as well, so we can at least watch the next couple days and have some fun, even if we don't get rich. But as you can prob tell, i've cooled a bit on my original idea, so before i buy more than the fun shares, i'm demanding a $19.51 price. i know, i know, you're saying to yourself 'who is this dumbass and why on earth did i trust his judgment?' but don't worry, i still like the trade overall. back again later with final data.
Cool. I'll get back to you with all the data, but the trading data surrounding the last 2 earnings reports (the only 2 since it went public) weren't what i was hoping to see.
I'm also a little worried about possible mkt reaction to this art, which i just stumbled upon a minute ago. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204621904577017801506511284.html?ru=yahoo&mod=yahoo_hs