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Baidu, Inc. Message Board

  • hmmm26 hmmm26 Nov 9, 2011 2:36 PM Flag

    If I Posted a Trading Idea For Renn, Would Anybody Be Interested?

    Hi, thanks for your time. Would it help to learn that I've only ever posted 3 Ideas, all of them documented BEFORE (or maybe while) the purchases were made, and all 3 of them were profitable?

    My bona fides (archived posts support all statements): I've posted two Trading Ideas: last Friday, a Yoku 1 day, 10% profit outcome, and on Nov 1, buying Sina at $77 to $89 last night, but full disclosure: I screwed up and held them till pre market today, out at only $83, + 8%.

    Also, 1 Investing Idea: in late Oct, I recommended investing in DATE at $8.50; today it's trading at $9.65, about + 14%.

    OK, enough bona fides. Here's my RENN Trading Idea. It could really use some peer review, so if you're able, thanks VERY much.

    My reasons for maybe buying Renn include:

    1. Renn's Rule 144 IPO lockup ended Nov 1, which explains the constant down days and huge volume, but by now most Insiders that were going to sell this month, have sold, and SEC reg's don't allow additional Insider shares to be greenlit for sale until (at least) Dec 1.

    2. Sohu/Sina margin woes pressuring Renn lower.

    3. Unflattering analyst statements and a psuedo leaked ER preview also knocking the shares down.

    4. Shorting shares under $5 is extraordinarily difficult (close enough to call it illegal), so there's immediate downside support to deny new short sellers.

    5. European mess depressing market generally.

    6. Price is near it's all time low; I like the psychology behind buying there.

    Possibly other factors; I need to think more about this.

    I'd probably use Thursday's ER as the tentative sell date, or the day after, or possibly Monday. The confusion's why this one needs peer review so bad!

    Thanks again for your help.

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    • skinny and citi and andy if he's around, did you guys sign up for the google group? i just did today; there's not enough people in it to make it work right yet, but if we can scrape together enough bright folks, we could have a board with no spam, no flame wars, no cheerleading. ah, heaven. anyway, def sign up: http://groups.google.com/group/biduinvestors2011

    • "1. Renn's Rule 144 IPO lockup ended Nov 1, which explains the constant down days and huge volume, but by now most Insiders that were going to sell this month, have sold, and SEC reg's don't allow additional Insider shares to be greenlit for sale until (at least) Dec 1."

      Thx -- this is huge & explains the RENN downward trend. Little concerned, however, about the insider shares can be sold starting 12/1/11. I'll be watching the play very closely & once again appreciate your post.

      • 2 Replies to skinny_bill_46
      • the insider shares that can come to market at the beginning of subsequent months are controlled by SEC; severely restricted by the lesser of 2 formulas: one having to do with average share volume and the other to do w/ percentage held by prospective sellers at a certain ratio of entire unsold insider shares.

        basically, for all practical purposes you can ignore all the monthly greenlight dates, cuz they're tiny by comparison to the big butt kicking that every IPO stock takes 6 months (usually) after going public.

      • if i had to bet on 2 china companies that would be the focus of the ipo scandles-
        renn would be tops

        their ip o was delayed due to acctg guy having to step down as to not draw heat due to his previous position.

    • This post is just to set up a verifiable way to track all Trading and Investing Ideas in advance.

      Need previous documentation for these (they exist in yahoo board posts, but prob have to dig a bit):

      1. Investing Idea, late Oct, DATE, bought at $8.50. [Cite Needed].

      2. Trading Idea, Yoku, early Nov, result + 10%. [Cite Needed]

      3. Trading Idea, Sina, Nov 1 thru Nov 8, +8%, but poorly handled. [Cite Needed].

      Today, Ideas 4 - 6 are greenlit. All verifiable, all in advance (so prob all lose):

      4. Investment Idea: Bought Tudo at $14.25 (filled).

      5. Trading Idea: Yoku, bought at $19.51 (filled), another buy pending at $19.01 (pending, might not reach). Earnings play.

      6. Trading Idea: Renn, buy pending at $5.01. Though I hate Renn as buy and hold, there's a triple witching: Rule 144, poor markets generally, renn ER preview leaked. Wait, just look above for reasons.

 
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