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  • hmmm26 hmmm26 Dec 28, 2011 3:29 PM Flag

    Anyone Else Here Place the Occasional Friendly Wager?

    Doesn't Toledo - 3 vs Air Force seem like a great bet?

    The game starts at 3:30pm central time on one of the ESPN networks.

    Check out Toledo's resume. Their only losses are to OSU, Boise St, Syracuse in OT, and a surprisingly good NIU team: http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/2649/toledo-rockets

    Air Force's resume's not terrible, but IMHO it doesn't justify being only a 3 pt dog: http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/2005/air-force-falcons

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    • Let's move to college bowl #2 thread. This one's getting too hard to navigate.

    • "Caveat Emptor, pal." -- Matt Damon in "Rounders," a movie about a NYC law student who spends his weekends in Atlantic City taking cash off tourists to pay tuition and who ultimately abandons the practice of law in favor of professional gambling. Yet, do I get even a dime in royalties? No.

      The pts scored stats you cite are a decent starting point in assessing an O/U bet. Still, several shortcomings need to be addressed before we can be confident those numbers indicate an OV bet:

      1. No account whatsoever is taken of the defenses being faced. Surely, if these two tms had the defenses that LSU and Alabama have, it should change whether we'd expect those tms to score their average amount of pts tomorrow, or not, right? Conversely, if these two tms have Baylor-like defenses, that would affect our expectation of whether they'd make their averages tomorrow, too, right, but in the opposite direction?

      2. OK, so should we just average the pts scored stats cited with a team's pts against stats, as here: http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/stats/byteam?cat1=defense&cat2=Total&conference=I-A_all Well, it's a step forward: now we're thinking on both sides of the ball, but a great deal of research later, you will learn that points allowed is too gross a tool to use. It needs fine tuning.

      I'm skipping the research steps here for readability, but it turns out that yards allowed, divided into rushing and receiving (not passing) yds allowed, is far more indicative of future performance than the points allowed metric.

      3. OK, we've got our metrics, but what about that averages idea? Using a team's variance from league averages produces decent, profitable results; however,using percentage variation from the league's mean (the middlest), is far more predictive.

      4. OK, so we've got our metrics: rush yds allowed and receiving yds allowed and we've established that the variance from the mean is more accurate than the variance from the average. But we still aren't ready to get real numbers. To eliminate skewing, certain games versus teams vastly inferior to this week's opponent have to just be completely deleted from a team's gamelog, along with their stats. Who cares if a team beat NW Rhode Island State by 50? Tomorrow's opponent is nothing like NW RI St., so that game tells us nothing. Thus, Chattanooga and Wyoming for Nebraska and Citadel for S. Carolina get tossed.

      Actually, this is taking way, way longer than I expected (I blame the booze), so I'm going to quit here, unless anyone's interested in more details.

    • Awesome job. My strategy: always stick the House with the bill.

      Sportsbooks are the Robin Hoods of intelligence: they take from the dumb and give to the smart.

      I was thrown out of a book tonight for sharp play, despite the fact that those supposedly sharp plays lost thousands of dollars in that account today. Hrrumph. If this weren't about the 5th ID I've been thrown out of there under, I'd consider making a stink (since that's never conducive to getting paid all your profits I will, as always, help them hide their sins).

    • Despite the stats you presented, the skin-man still likes the U. Not as much as the Giants, though. G/L.

    • "... my favorite bet tomorrow is UN 46, Neb/S.Car...":

      Caveat emptor: Neb & S.C combined an average 60-point
      per game (30.5 and 30.2, respectively.
      46 points combined is less than 23.3% their normal output.

    • Hip -hip.......going down to the cage to cash out. Was sweating it out at 21-14 Tear in eye w/my daughter flying back to college in the am. Just paid for her next semester on The House. Happy dude-dad.

      Btw, did I mention that Bidu explodes in '12?

    • Hey, an options player NOT being a fan of 5T parlays? Whaddaya kidding me?

      3:40 to go in Giants game. Layin 3. C'mon, baby!!!!

    • HNY right back at ya!

      Have fun, and see ya next week.

    • Also, Skinny, if you're in the mood for a longshot tomorrow, grab two 5 gm parlays: one of all five big 10 tms, and the other of all their opponents.

      Given that the value of all of those tms are dependent on the Big 10's conference strength score, if that score is too high or too low, then all 5 tms get over or under rated, as a group.

      Careful, though, it's a borderline Correlated Parlay (like a huge fave + OV or a huge dog + UN in the same gm). Place that one at a Disney book on the Strip, not downtown, cuz they might not be so amused!

    • Don't count your chickens, but we're lookin' good. At Bellagio until tomorrow. I luv the u in sc/ne. Keep in mind----the public is always wrong.

      Btw, watch what Bidu does in '12..it's gonna be sick! The overall mkt will spike beyond belief.
      O's mkt...don't lose sight of that.


      Skin-Man

      HNY

      1-1-12

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