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Baidu, Inc. Message Board

  • crvin31 crvin31 Nov 30, 2012 8:21 PM Flag

    I tried to warn you China is super slow and the big sellers are nowhere near done dumping.

    This is not the Bidu of 2006 or other years. I am long and hope 70 holds, I was smart enough to buy puts to protect me from the downside, my puts get more expensive almost everyday and barely got dented yesterday even when was up, what was strange is the fact Bidu was pumped up or propped up for the smallest amount possible out of a trading day. It was like it was done just to help the chart and catch bagholders, or allow them to quickly grab a chunk of discounted puts, and grab a lot the mm's sure did. I have been adding to my puts in Bidu and adding to my calls in AMZN, and both are winning daily as these are major trends. Just as AMZN price target was raised to 314 and 330, I expect Bidu to be lowered to 70, mainly because I don't see any meaningful support till 71-72 area. I plan on AMZN being 290-310 by Jan 19th at that time I will sell half my Amzn calls or maybe even 70% ahead of AMZN earnings and by Bidu 2015 calls, (the reason 2015 calls is because with new leaders in China and possibly no stimulus when it was suppose to be the largest China stimulus ever) I feel China is so slow and with Sina, Sohu, Renn,Dang just not acting right, they are all acting sick like a serious issue with China getting slower and Bidu is acting worse then I have seen in 3 or 4 years. I do not think Bidu or FB or anybody can make money off mobile, and I don't see them able to figure it out till 2015,2016. I have Jan 2013 Bidu puts, Jan 2014 Bidu puts, 2015 Bidu calls and 1200 Bidu shares long...I also have 2700 Amzn shares via Jan calls assorted between 290 295 300 305 310 315 320 calls. A long AMZN and short Bidu trade is not only working but I have been able to add to it heavier and heavier each week for 4 weeks straight. With record earnings and revenues coming for AMZN as well as kindle sales, content sales, and more customers signing up for the best, cheapest and most reliable cloud in the world. Customers just keep joining from over 100 countries, Google is so #$%$ they are trying to copy AMZN and keep lowering the price of Googles cloud plans. But Amzn has added and continues to add an EBAY type of auction to Amazons site but a smarter fee tiered plan that separates and helps the little guy and makes a guy that sells 60 items or less a month then one that can sell all he wants. And they are offering small business loans cheaper then anyone else and those that have demonstrated a good work ethic and business on Amazons site can get pre approvals, better rates, and higher loan amounts. AMZN is even rumored to be coming out with a smartphone better and faster then the Samsung Galaxy s 3 and Jeff Bezos did not deny the June 1st release for the unlocked kindle smart phone for 300.00 The brilliance is really becoming obvious. Amazon paid off its Billionaire campus and distribution center and they are adding A/C to its warehouses so its employees can work harder and be happier. The same optimism I feel for Amazon is the same negativity I expect with Bidu, its market share lead that is slowing or fading and the earnings I expect to decline and miss. I have my Bidu shares in case Bidu can bottom instead of putting in bad week of losses over and over again. Tax loss selling will hurt Bidu the rest of the year while the 20% of Hedge Funds down on the year will be chasing gains in AMZN as it slices right through its 52 week high next week. I have watched Hedge Funds fight over Amzn shares on level 2 for 7 trading days and they will continue to pile in AMZN until its record earnings announcement the end of January, (the whole world will want to be in AMZN before its most impressive earnings report in its history of existence. Cramer recently said the only 3 companies that matter in tech are AMZN AAPL and GOOG. Not only is this true, but the competition among the 3 is making all three better. It will be interesting to see which company gets stung first and actually hurts one of the other companies. I really like BIDU still and I feel the last 6 months they have really been slipping but they can still turn it around, I fear they might get desperate and make a bad and/or the wrong purchase, in an effort to get the growth back they and the street are use to. If they could get RENN or SINA, Sohu for next to nothing I would be happy with that, if they bought QIHU I would be upset with that.Notwithstanding all that I would add to Bidu but not until 70-71. The fiscal cliff selloff from say next week till the 1st or 2nd week of January would really hurt Bidu as the bid is already really weak lately. AMZN not so much, 5 points down to say 12 for AMZN only if the selling got really bad as compared to 70 that I hope holds in Bidu.

    Disclosure, I am long Bidu with put protection and Long Amzn with shares and calls on margin with no downside protection in Amazon, (I used the money I would normally use for downside protection to double up my long position on AMZN with double the shares and 4 times as many calls as I normally would buy on a high beta stock. (I am that positive on Amzn heading to Feb 1st, I feel will almost be straight up, with very little selling it sees, as only temporary shakeouts, by the market makers.

    Sentiment: Hold

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