At the end of 2015, Sensipar royalties will go 100% to the bottom line. This means that Sensipar will bring in $100 million in earnings for the year 2016. By this time, GATTEX sales will be going full bore, while NATPARA will be on the market for nearly two years. If GATTEX has 2000 patients by then, NPS will have $500 to $600 million in sales. But let's just conservatively say that GATTEX has $300 million in sales and that NATPARA has $200 million in sales, We all know margins on pharmaceuticals often run about 80 to 95%, but let's just conservatively use a 40% margin given the new entry. This would give us a total of $300 million going to the bottom line for Senispar + Gattex + Natpara. At a conservative multiple of 15 (should be much larger for a growing company), we get a market cap of $4.5 billion or $53/share. This means that NPS's stock price will go up from here about $1.3 dollars a month (53-13)/30 = 1.3. So if you buy 10,000 shares, you'll earn $13,000 a month on average. Not too shabby.
Now remember, I was the guy who outlined this stock's great potential over a year ago. Look at my February 2012 post.
I am with you on this .. When this hits $20, I will pull off 50% and ride the rest for FREE ..
With Biotech, one has to be a bit careful - look at AFFY for example. While AFFY's are rare, that can happen.
Fortunately NPSP is not one hit wonder and I like the Orphan focus of NPSP ..
NPSP could be ALXN in the making IMO
You need to add in that NPS recently reacquired the global ex-US rights of Gattex and Natpara. Typically, the global markets are worth as much as the US market. In other words, double your sales projections. And, incidentally, according to Jefferies yesterday, Gattex sales are running well ahead of schedule. Frankly, I think we're looking at:
1) Gattex--400 million US and now, let's say, 300 million ex-US global, to be safe
2) Natpara--pricing isn't set, but let's say 200m US/ 200m ex-US
3) Sensipar--100 million
Peak sales, given current product portfolio/pipeline--roughly 1.2 Billion.
So I think there's some upside to your projection. As you say, though, "not too shabby."