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NPS Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • dcaf7 dcaf7 Aug 21, 2013 12:39 PM Flag

    NPSP price target raised to $28

    Wednesday, Aug 21

    NPS Pharmaceuticals price target raised at Oppenheimer

    "Over the next three years our surveyed physicians plan to increase their Gattex prescriptions significantly," Oppenheimer's Boris Peaker says, reiterating an Outperform rating on shares of NPS Pharmaceuticals (NPSP +2%).
    Peaker is confident enough in the survey to use it as a basis for a new price target of $28, up markedly from the previous target of $19.
    SA contributor Cory Renauer also likes the prospects for Gattex, calling it a potential "billion plus blockbuster."

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      ■ Our survey suggests that Gattex has substantial room for growth based on
      increasing physician comfort level as well as lack of alternative treatments.
      Although some investors may have viewed a 1-2 day reduction in IV nutrition as
      marginal, we believe that it is meaningful for these patients.
      ■ Based on limited patients awareness of Gattex, and the strong support for
      treatment by docs, we anticipate Gattex to be highly promotion-sensitive. Although
      it may take a year or two to raise this awareness, we believe that the result will be
      strong growth in new patient starts over the next several years.
      ■ Over 2/3 of physicians recommend patients to stay on Gattex for 4-6 months
      or longer to confirm efficacy. We believe that this commitment to treatment is
      important and will allow patients to see the maximum efficacy of Gattex.
      ■ Although our survey does not focus on Natpara, based on feedback from our
      consultants we anticipate a strong launch for Natpara as well. As such, with two
      concurrent successful drug launches, we believe that NPS will have a lot more
      positive updates to maintain investor interest over the next several years.
      ■ Our price target of $28/share is based on an NPV analysis of major assets. We
      estimate an NPV of $15/share for Gattex, $8/share for Natpara, $4/share for
      Sensipar/Mimpara royalties, and another $1/share for earlier stage pipeline. We've
      adjusted our model for the recent 2Q13 financials and our raised Gattex growth

    • OPY - We conducted a survey of 25 community gastroenterologists to assess their current
      view on Gattex and the future growth potential for the drug. Our results show that while
      most docs are aware of Gattex, most of their patients are not. Over the next three
      years our surveyed physicians plan to increase their Gattex prescriptions significantly,
      part of which is likely to be driven by increased patient awareness, positive feedback
      from initial patients, and improved reimbursements. Based on the results of this survey
      we are raising our price target for NPS from $19/share to $28/share and reiterate our
      Outperform rating.

    • thanks for that info...

      Sentiment: Buy

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