I think NPSP is going much higher. The run has only started. Buy on market dips. A few of my notes:
(1) Excellent & trustworthy company management.
(2) Orphan drug companies are in the investing sweet spot right now - Longer patent protection for orphan drugs, faster approval process through FDA, tax breaks, very limited or no competition. Thanks Congress for this one - Orphan Drug Act.
(3) The potential of their orphan drug Gattex is not completely monetized yet. Probably a $1B+ drug once completely monetized.
(4) CEO said international opportunity for Gattex will be larger than the US
(5) NPSP said that they are seeing an unprecedented 90% continuation rate for the drug (industry norm is around 70-80%). This means the percentage of patients who stay on the drug. Patients say the drug makes them feel better.
(6) NPSP has stated they have had no problem obtaining reimbursement from insurance companies
(7) NPSP will be seeking pediatric indication for Gattex. Currently, drug is only approved for adults. Pediatric indication potential is huge. SBS is a very debillitating condition for children. Actually, it's a very debillitating condition for anyone
(8) NPSP will be filing their drug application to the FDA for their next orphan drug, Natpara, to treat hypoparathyroidism this quarter. $1B+ drug once completely monetized.
(9) CEO said Natpara opportunity bigger than Gattex
(10) Odds the FDA approves Natpara is high based on Phase III trial results, health industry feedback, health conferences, analysts, etc
(11) The 10% royalties they receive from Amgen for their dialysis drug, Sensipar, will be going to the bottom line in 2015. At present this is over $100M+/year
(12) More ultra orphan drugs in the pipeline - NPSP790 & NPSP795
(13) Majority of Wall Street still doesn't get the huge potential of the company. They are starting to get it, though. Hence, the upgrades that seems to be coming in almost weekly from institutional investors.