Strong Near Term Headwinds for Biotech, Mid Term Smooth Sailing
NSPS is tracking the decline in the IBB ( biotech etf ) since October 7. NPSP closed $ 34.98, and is now trading down 18% during that time frame. IBB is down 4% from October 7. This includes a 2.6% NPSP drop off today. This is not unusual, absent stock specific catalysts, most of the high beta biotech evidence an exaggerated movement up and down compared to the biotech index. They do however, track the directional movement of the index which is now definitively negative.
Assuming that NPSP continues to execute on clinical, commercial and financial milestones, these movements are not consequential for the longer term multiyear, investor. Shorter term, or investors seeking to maximize returns by optimizing entry and exit prices, will find this environment challenging, but potentially very lucrative. As I have indicated in previous posts, last week I sold my considerable position in NPSP, to lock in a large profit, and replaced the stock with November 16 options.
Based on the charts, i will re-enter the stock at four different price levels between $ 22 and $ 27. Put in context, these prices supports were all last realized within the past 60 days. The strategy changes if the broader market, and IBB decisively rebound precipitated by a resolution to the debt/budget crisis.
Here’s the deal pal, I am going to keep this simple for you since your monosyllabic vocabulary and limited comprehension are in sync. Most people on this website want to share their views and understand the thinking of others. You do not respect this, nor are you capable of synthesizing complex thought that taxes your limited grey matter.
Judging from the reaction to your inane posts to eyesandears, kiwi, and cbancroft, Johnny, your only appreciative audience is the guy who looks back from the mirror every morning when you shave.
As I previously said, you approach comments from others with a closed mind and an open mouth. Change your moniker to Johnnybedumb, it’s more descriptive and accurate.
After this post, I will join eyes, kiwi, and cbancroft and put you on ignore. Try it!
The President and Senate leaders may or may not reach an accord today or tomorrow, we all hope they do. Result will be a dead cat bounce for stocks, unless the House sign's on. Even a casual observer appreciates the white space between the House dems and repubs is large. Until a deal is done, your target's for NPSP are real. For now, the performance of biotech and the higher vitality stock sectors is captive to Washington, rather than company prospects. Sad, but true.
A reasonable strategy for the more opportunistic momentum investor. as you are suggesting, the long term bull case is compelling. We will get a CEO update November 7 detailing the clinical and market approval progress of Gattex for Adult SBS, and Natapara for adult hypoparathyroidism.
Between now and November 7, or a solution to the Washington gridlock, whichever is first, is the opportunity and risk. Even longer term investors are not pleased by the market induced 18% loss in the value of their shares in less than a week. A target bottom of $ 22-$ 27 is reasonable.