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Maxwell Technologies, Inc. Message Board

  • analyst112 analyst112 Feb 1, 2006 3:26 PM Flag

    not so fast--competition

    This is no monopoly and the recent technology has been around for 30 years. The leading manufacturers of ultracapacitors today are Maxwell Technologies in the United States, NESS Capacitor Company in South Korea, Okamura Laboratory in Japan, and EPCOS in Europe and Matsushita Electric Company. That is enough companies to cause a bidding war. Let's face it, maxwell does not even make any money at this. With a $275MM market cap, this is not for the faint at heart. I think it is best to wait for the next bear raid before getting interested in Maxwell. Companies with no earnings tend to get mashed in the short run after the hype dies down..

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    • They licensed their large format UC's to EPSCO, per RB in order to create multiple suppliers and increase OEM comfort re: possibility of supply disruption. Maxwell is the leader in large format UC's. They are also a leader in smaller D cells (patented) that can be produced in quantity cheaply and used serially in a module to achieve the desired voltage.

    • andychoka

      Thanks for the compliment. Still, it is a shame that the company itself could not provide more meaningful data to the wider marketplace. Investors ought to be able to glean these insights from industry analysts or the company, itself.

      Perhaps greater visibility and disclosure is coming along with these contracts in 2006.

    • Interesting comment thanks. Does flocculant flow with the water or does gravity on the floc overcome the flow of the water? How does flocflow? That is enough for this board try flocflow@yahoo.com

    • Thanks for "clarifying" your name--I thought it might have something to do with flocculant.

    • Thank you for including me. I have updated my profile. I am not an engineer. I am a unemployed (retired) Water operator. I took mud out of water by adding chemicals to make it floc (mud balls) and fall to the bottom. Thanks again

      Flocflow

    • "If you want to learn about mxwl read this board there are engineers who post great stuff--ie focflo, mr ex an sumarik"

      Of all the boards, this one has to be one of the best. I really look forward to reading these post and have been acculimating a whorth while position in the last couple of years. Thanks to all!!

    • They have licensed in the past (Honda) but that is now old technology. The trick in the auto and other industries is to have two sources of product and it is important that there are other producers such as Panasonic. Maxwell has the best technology as far as energy density and cost. If you want to learn about mxwl read this board there are engineers who post great stuff--ie focflo, mr ex an sumarik

    • Very, very cool!

      Now..........tell me more!

      Are they in position to license their technology? Exactly how far out in front of the pack are they?

      I may have to add again...


      ===========

      To Sumark: If they keep growing their revenues at the present rate or anything close, they'll be worth a 25 to 30 multiple on forwards. Not trailing. What the market is looking for is what they can make NEXT YEAR and the year after. The revenue ramp is just gorgeous and with orders rolling down the pike like they have been recently the fundies will be buying LIKE BLIND DOGS IN A MEAT LOCKER!!!!!!!!!!

      They're looking for ACCELERATING revenues and it looks like we're here.

      ==============

      To PR GUY: Keep 'em coming!

      =================

      The beauty here is that energy is exactly where the market is looking right now. Accelerating revenues, expanding markets, patents..........Dawg, life should be this good!

    • These "big" orders are a big deal to those of us who have been around this stock for a long time. Maxwell is the technological leader in ucaps and now it is paying off. You might be right that the stock will pull back but this is a disruptive technology that has a very large market.You should be aware that hype ran the stock from $5 to $43 in 1999 in a very short time and if you want to bet on the shorts when the orders are finally coming in you might have a problem. I have always made my money in the market on large positions bets on disruptive technology.

      • 1 Reply to andychoka
      • Here are some fundamentals to consider with MXWL

        I believe there are approximately 20mm shs outstdg fully diluted.

        Assume that gross margins for the company approach the 40% that mgmt has previously stated. Gross margin for the last qtr, Q3 '05 was 29%...Figure this is because overall revenues, at approx $12mm/qtr are still too low and SG&A as a percentage of sales drags down the margin to the 29%...As revenues from ultracaps begin to take off, the gross margin should begin to approach that 40%.

        So, assuming 40% margins, let's play some games with future revenues.

        2006 ?
        2007 ??
        2008 ???

        Mgmt has said the opportunites are for a multi-billion dollar revenue stream in the coming decade...

        Could MXWL achieve perhaps $200mm in ultracap revenues in 2008? If so, at margins of 40%, that is $80mm in profits...What P/E should we hope to see for a truly disruptive technology company? 10/20/30/40?

        Apply those multiples to $80mm and you can begin to see what types of valuations are possible if things come together as planned for/hoped for at the company..

        As revenues grow, we can all adjust these numbers accordingly...Yes, it can get to be mind-boggling very quickly, assuming that MXWL is for real and finally gets recognized to boot.

    • After this quick run-up, you may be right that there will be a correction if the earnings call does not reveal a quarterly profit. However, in my opinion, we would still stay within the upward price trend.

      • 2 Replies to fork1010101
      • fork1010101

        MXWL not likely to turn a profit in Q4 2005...None of these ultracap revenues were recorded then, so likely another loss.

        Qstn becomes when mgmt believes the company crosses over to EPS positive. Hopefully, they will answer these inevitable qstns with some straightforward guidance.

        Perhaps they cannot reveal the specifics of the actual contract values for Gen Hydrogen and Enercom....However, they ought to be able to give some guidance as to overall ultracap revenue expectations in 2006 from these publicly announced deals.

        Positive, straightforward projections could very well overshadow the likely continued loss in Q4 2005. Obviously, without some guidance from the company, it will be hard(er) for new investors to begin to understand what kind of ramp up in revenues/profits MXWL is capable of achieving.

        On the bright side, it would appear likely that the company should become EPS positive sometime in 2006. That alone would mark MXWL as a fairly unique "alternative energy" stock---very few of these other "concept" companies are anywhere close to being profitable, despite the great promises of fuel cells and other alternative energy schemes.

        Hopefully, that message gets communicated to the marketplace, and makes investors take note of a key-enabling technology/company for the alternative energy boom that many foresee in the decade(s) ahead.

      • Who cares about past earnings. It's all about the future and more potential markets other than the already higher adoption in cars, windmills, power plants, cell phones, and the list goes on...

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