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Chindex International, Inc. Message Board

  • unlimited_partner unlimited_partner Aug 15, 2003 1:04 PM Flag

    Familiar faces

    Aikenlaw - you might remember me from our previous CHRB disc'n. this stock showed up on my "piece of crap" alert so i thought i'd check it out. looks like you beat me to it.

    definitely another china scam. so many things to love them for:
    1) management command premium salaries for running losses.
    2) company reports losses on a split basis. god forbid if they ran a profit they'd report them on a post-split basis
    3) company habitually use splits and reverse splits to keep their stock price in the 10-15 sweet spot...a cheap but effective ploy of roping in more US daytraders.

    in spite of these, biggest joke about this company is that they purport to import medical equipment and see that as a viable business going forward. believe me, its a matter of days and months before the majors (e.g., siemens) set up shop in Shanghai and do this on their own. i've seen this happen before in the china telecom equipment space. many importing plays (ever heard of Alfatech?) went bust after the big boys, alcatel, nortel et al decided to set up shop themselves.

    this stock is a no lose situation for shorts. if the medical equipment market turns up, the majors will set up shop and wipe CHDX off the field. if the business turns down, then CHDX just continues to run its usual operating losses.

    they would have taken this private a long time ago if the business looked remotely viable. keeping their listing helps line directors pockets with investor money.

    one insider sale and this POS is toast.

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    • Hey UP. Good minds think alike I guess.

      CHDX is a little more of a risk in my book, in that they are a legitimate business and there is the lingering effects of a China mania. However, CHDX is simply not a high growth type of company, and I don't see anything changing that in the foreseeable future.

      I have been short anywhere from 1000-2000 shares for a while now. I tend to slowly add to my position when it goes over 33.00, and slowly lighten up when it drops below 27-28.00. I have been doing this for over a month, and have made a good bit of money just playing the swings. I plan on holding the bulk of my position to cover under $ 20, but this may take a few months or even longer.

      What do you think of CHRB? I know where it is heading ultimately, but it is sort of hard to figure out the dynamics of what is really going on there. You have the company owners selling over 60% of the stock in the last several weeks, and the company does not appear to be anything other than a shell, but people are still will to pay $ 7 a share for it? I am still holding a ton of it short, and have made a lot of money. The volume has really dropped off on it, so I guess the day traders have moved on. I just can't figure who the few people are that are coming in and paying $7. I guess there must still be a number of shorts that are covering and taking quick profits..

      Good to hear from you..

      • 1 Reply to AikenLaw
      • Aiken - sorry I haven't really had a chance to dig through CHRB although I'd agree that it is a certain fraud. My only concern, as I mentioned before, was that the market cap is sufficiently low (from an absolute standpoint) that there is a slight chance of an RTO. I'm pretty sure the listing owners will be shopping it around to squeeze every last dollar they can. The value of a shell is between $3-$5MM so I would expect CHRB to fall, but not to zero.

        I actually think CHDX is a slightly better short. For starters, there's more borrow and no forced cover. Larger market cap rules out an RTO. Gross fundamental over-valuation. The clincher for me though, was the fact that the price jump was initiated by rogue Chinese funds on June 17.

        If you're not familiar with the situation, there's currently a massive H share bubble in China, fueled largely by a dearth of publicly listed companies and severe limitations on investing in foreign securities. There's a huge economic incentive for provincial pension fund managers to find some illegal means to move $$ overseas and we saw a wave of illegal funds hit the US markets on June 17. The funds were immediately channeled to foreign listed chinese companies, without care for fundamentals, to arb the H share valuation gap. The impact of these fund flows are negligible for a China Mobile or Petrochina even Sina, but it has been dramatic (understatement) in the micro-cap sector.

        Having made a killing on the gap-up, and with regulators hot on their tail, the rogue funds have started to withdraw meaningfully over the past couple weeks. US daytraders, who caught the wave late, are providing the liquidity for the funds to retreat and will ultimately be left holding the bag. Hit most severe will be the small-caps which have the poorest fundamentals.

        Run a price history on all the China small/micro-caps you know and you will discern a volume spike and gap-up on June 17 which defies explanation.

    • Did you ever think of the possibility that one of "the majors" will buy CHDX?

      You shorts are looking at the recent price increase rather than the metrics of CHDX.

      CHDX had been around for a long time - not so for the other cos. you are shorting.
      Over these years they have built a very close relationship with key decision makers in the Chinese Health Ministry

      http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/030805/55101_1.html
      �Chindex International Recognized by Chinese Government for Role in SARS Management in Beijing�

      CHDX was the only company to be so honored.

      It is this relationship that the large companies are paying for. Trying to sell directly is not as easy w/o the relationship CHDX has. Selling direct is not cheap and may even cost more than using CHDX as their distributor.

      How can you compare CHDX to CHRB?
      �CHRB - China Resources Development, Inc. (CRDI) is a holding company that has been engaged in retail supermarket operations since the fourth quarter of 1999.�

      With insiders always selling :
      http://biz.yahoo.com/t/C/CHRB.html

    • Yogi more of the same drivel under a new name I see.

      "believe me, its a matter of days and months before the majors (e.g., siemens) set up shop in Shanghai and do this on their own. i've seen this happen before in the china telecom equipment space."

      "one insider sale and this POS is toast."

      You must stay up late dreaming this nonsense up.

 
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